In March, DTN Contributing Analyst Joe Karlin looked at the 20-year growth rate for United States wheat harvested acres, yield and production across the 19 major producing states. Since 2000, U.S. wheat production has fallen by 0.7% compounded annually, with yield up an average of 1% while acreage is down 1.8% on average.
Karlin notes that the wheat area has fallen over this time due to economics, competition from other crops and issues like water restrictions in his home state of California. USDA is currently forecasting 2020-21 wheat acres as the lowest on record.
This same analysis shows Canada's all-wheat production increasing by an average annual compound rate of 0.9%, with yield increasing by 1.3% and harvested acres declining by an average of 0.4%. Increasing yields (brown line on attached chart) are behind the higher production in three of the four provinces analyzed, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta. In Ontario, production is unchanged over the past 20 years, with an average 0.3% increase in yields offset by an average 0.3% decline in acres. Karlin notes the largest declines in U.S. wheat production are seen in soft red winter wheat states such as Ohio and Indiana.
The largest annual increase seen in Canadian production is calculated for Manitoba at 2.3% annual growth, with an average annual increase in yield of 2.4% offsetting a modest average 0.2% decline in harvested acres.
The only province showing an average annual increase in harvested acres is seen in Alberta, where a modest average 0.1% increase in harvested acres, with a 1.1% average increase in yields over the 20-years leading to an average 1.1% annual increase in production.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
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