Statistics Canada reported the January canola crush at 854,686 metric tons (mt), the largest January crush ever and the fourth largest monthly crush ever. While down from the record 899,331 mt crushed in December, the monthly crush (blue bar) was above the previous crop year (brown bar), the three-year average (black-dotted line) and the average monthly volume needed to reach the current annual crush forecast (horizontal green line). Actual crush has exceeded the volume needed (green line) for the fifth month of the six months reported for 2019-20.
The cumulative crush over the first six months totals 5.063 million metric tons (mmt), up 7.2% from the 4.725 mmt crushed in the same period last crop year and the three-year average of 4.684 mmt. This pace of crush is 188,065 mt higher than the steady pace needed to reach the current AAFC crush forecast of 9.750 mmt, a forecast released by AAFC in February.
In 2018-19, the crush in the last-half of the crop year totaled 154,142 mt lower than the first half, with a tendency for crush to dip in February, in addition to challenging spring conditions such as road bans and wet yards and shutdowns tied to annual maintenance at a number of plants. This year's activity in the last half of the crop year will also include a six-day outage faced by CN in early February, along with the effects from the blockades faced across the country that have resulted in delayed service and led to cancelled cars.
The reported oil produced, at 375,907 mt in January, represented 43.9% of the total weight, down only slightly from the previous month but close to the highest reported in 17 months. Year-to-date, this represents 43.7% as compared to 43.5% over the first six months of the previous crop year.
In advance of official Canadian Canola Board Margin calculations from the ICE Exchange, a ProphetX chart approximating this index points to a value of $79.30/mt, down from recent highs in excess of $120/mt in late 2019, while this index is on the verge of testing the previous year's index that has recently been reported in the mid-$70/mt range.
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