The Canadian Grain Commission reported light exports of 120 metric tons of bulk peas through licensed facilities as of week 24, down sharply from the previous week, although the overall pace lies close to both the three-year and five-year average pace for this week.
As of week 24, or the week ending Jan. 19, Canada has exported 1.3272 million metric tons, up 33.8% from the previous crop year, while 0.4% higher than the three-year average (green shaded area on the chart) and 2.9% below the five-year average (not shown).
As of November, the CGC's Exports of Canadian Grain and Wheat Flour report shows a year-over-year increase in movement to the top four shipping destinations of China (198,400 mt), Bangladesh (39,700 mt), India (99,400 mt) and Cuba (22,000 mt), with the year-over-year increase in brackets, while December export data will be released next week.
Are exports on track to reach the current 3.4 mmt export target as reported in Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's January supply and demand tables? This volume is up 4.7% from 2018-19, the highest volume shipped in three years and higher than the five-year average of 3.2 mmt.
Over the past five years, an average of 44.9% of total exports were realized as of the week 24 bulk export volume reported by the CGC. Projecting this average pace forward, exports would reach only 2.956 mmt, or 444,000 mt, less than the current forecast.
At the same time, there is a noticeable shift in the pattern of export flows. In the three years from 2014-15 through 2016-17, the export program was front-loaded, with week 24 cumulative shipments ranging accounting for 44.6% to 56.4% of total crop year exports, averaging 50% of total movement.
In the past two crop years, movement as of week 24 accounted for 33.3% and 40.9% of total crop-year exports, averaging only 37% of total exports. At this pace, the current crop year movement projected forward would point to potential for crop year exports of 3.587 mmt, higher than the current forecast.
This change can be explained by the shift in volumes traded from India to China. India's volumes moved earlier in the crop year in advance of the rabi or winter crop harvest in that country. In 2015-16, 51% of the bulk movement reported by the CGC was destined for India, while in 2018-19, 53% was shipped to China.
Weekly producer bids delivered to Saskatchewan facilities this week show yellow peas slipping in price to $6.85/bushel, after struggling to crack the $7 level. This is roughly $0.52/bu. lower than this time last year, while roughly $0.82/bu. below the three-year average for this week.
Green peas have increased to $12.03/bu., the first time above $12/bu. since May, while $1.41/bu. higher than this time last crop year and $2.77/bu. higher than the three-year average.
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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
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