Statistics Canada reports that 829,303 metric tons of canola was crushed in the month of November, down from the record 882,301 mt crushed in the previous month. This volume is 1% higher than the same month in 2018-19 while 2.3% higher than the three-year average.
For the fourth consecutive month, the monthly volume crushed was higher than the same month in the previous crop year (blue bars versus brown bars on the attached), while also above the three-year average (blue bars versus the black dashed line). The cumulative 2019-20 crush is calculated at 3.309 million metric tons, up 8.5% from the same period last crop year and 7.2% or 225,714 mt higher than the steady pace needed to reach the current Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada crush forecast of 9.250 mmt.
November data shows the oil content of the seed increasing slightly to 43.43%, while over the first four months, is reported at an average of 43.54%, the lowest value reported for this period in three years and slightly below the three-year average for this period at 43.77%.
For the second straight crop year, the domestic crush is poised to rival export volumes, due entirely to the loss in export volumes to China. In 2018-19, the volume exported trailed the domestic crush volume by 1.7%, while on average over the previous three years, export volumes were 20% higher than crush volumes and 23% higher on average over five years.
Attractive crush margins continue to support this activity, supported by moves in both soybean oil and palm oil that have seen nearby contracts either reach contract highs, or close to it. The Canadian Canola Board Margin Index fell by $5.16/mt on Wednesday to $118.26/mt, while continues to promote a record pace of crush and is well above the $63.92/mt reported on this day one year ago.
DTN 360 Poll
A recent informal poll asked the following: Roughly one year has passed since Canada's arrest of Huawei Technologies' executive Meng Wanzhou, at the request of the U.S. government seeking to extradite her to the U.S. on fraud charges, and China's retaliatory detaining of two Canadians. Do you think the Canadian government handled the situation well?
Of the seven options given, by far a majority of responses, or 59%, chose the option that stated maybe, although it is unfair that Canada has been caught in the middle of a U.S.-China dispute that has negatively affected farmers in Canada.
The next largest response, or 27% of respondents, indicated that the government of Canada has not handled this situation well, while there are other ways that Canada can force a solution.
An additional 9% of respondents indicated that Canada left the ambassador to China position vacant for too long, while only 5% responded that the government has handled the situation well and that many possible actions would only result in further jeopardizing Canadian exports to that country.
This week's poll asks if you think the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement should be ratified by Canada? You can weigh in with your thoughts on this week's poll, found on the lower right side of your DTN Canada Home Page. We thank you for sharing your thoughts on DTN's weekly polls!
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
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