The Canadian Grain Commission reports week 18 bulk dry pea exports through licensed facilities at 64,800 metric tons, the highest weekly volume shipped in four weeks. Cumulative shipments for the first 18 weeks, or the week-ending Dec. 8, shows 1.107 million metric tons shipped, up 49.1% higher than the same period last crop year, while only 5.5% below the five-year average.
Commercial stocks in licensed facilities are pegged at 289,800 mt, within 2,200 mt of the volume of commercial stocks reported for the same week over the past two crop years.
Based on the historical pace of movement of exports as of week 18 over the past five years, an average of 36.7% of total crop-year exports were realized as of week 18. This pace of movement would project forward to crop year exports of 3.016 million metric tons, below the 3.4 mmt forecast set by AAFC in November.
At the same time, over the past two years, only 28.8% of crop year exports were realized in the first 18 weeks for 2017-18 and 22.9% of crop year exports in this period of 2018-19. Projecting forward this pace of movement would result in crop year exports ranging from 3.8 mmt to 4.8 mmt, well above the current AAFC forecast.
Of course, demand can't be looked at in isolation. This month, Statistics Canada reduced its estimate for Canada's production by 435,500 mt from its September estimate to 4.237 mmt. This leads to crop year supplies of approximately 4.6 mmt, which would be the largest in three years. AAFC's current supply and demand tables point to a forecast of 1 mmt of domestic use, leaving exportable supplies of 3.6 mmt, already below the projected exports shown earlier, while a volume that would drive stocks to zero (or require an upward revision in production.)
The average yellow pea bid reported by Saskatchewan Agriculture rose $0.03/bushel, as of Dec. 11 this week, to $6.58/bu., the highest level traded since July. Over the past three years, this price has averaged $7.74/bu. for this week. Green peas continue to hold promise, with this week's average Saskatchewan bid surging by $1/bu. to $11.63/bu., the highest level reported since late June/early July. This is well-above the three-year average for this week of $8.89/bu.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at email@example.com
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