Canada Markets

A Look at Canada's August-September Grain Exports

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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This chart highlights Canada's licensed grain exports to China for the first two months of the crop year (blue bars, one month for soybeans), along with the 2018-19 volume (brown bars) and the three-year average (grey bars). Results vary widely, with the oilseeds continuing to lag while dry pea exports are well ahead of 2018-19 and the average pace. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

The Canadian Grain Commission's Exports of Canadian grain and wheat flour report for the month of September includes data for the first two months or 17% of the 2019-20 crop year for most crops, or the first month of the row-crop crop year.

Canada's wheat exports were reported at 1.2184 million metric tons in September, only slightly lower than the volume shipped in August, but well below the 1.559 mmt shipped in September 2018.

The largest wheat buyer for the month was Indonesia, with 149,300 metric tons shipped, while China was second with 118,200 mt shipped. Year-to-date, the largest buyers are Indonesia at 374,000 mt, China at 214,000 mt and Japan at 207,700 mt. Australia remains the sixth largest buyer, with 125,800 mt shipped in the first two months of the crop year, which compares to the 261,500 mt shipped in the latter months of the 2018-19 crop year. While exports of wheat to China are below the August/September period of 2018-19, they are still 19% higher than the three-year average for this period.

Exports of durum in September were reported at 397,600 mt in September, up only slightly from the volume shipped in August. Cumulative exports are reported at 788,700 mt, up 55% from the same period last crop year. The two largest buyers for the month are Turkey at 157,100 mt and Morocco where 147,100 mt was shipped. Turkey is the largest buyer year-to-date with 217,200 mt shipped, while nothing was shipped to this country in the first two months of the last crop year. In total, 314,900 mt was shipped to Turkey in 2018-19 and 49,500 mt shipped in 2017-18. To-date, 156,500 mt has been shipped to Italy, up from 56,400 mt in the first two months of 2018-19.

Canola exports in September are reported at 454,100 mt in September, down from the 694,500 mt shipped in August and the 668,800 mt shipped in September 2018. Cumulative exports for the first two months total 1.1486 mmt, down 7.3% from the same two-month period in 2018-19. Over these two months, movement to China totals 182,600 mt, down sharply from the 617,400 mt shipped in the same period of 2018-19 and the three-year average of 449,100 mt, as seen on the attached chart. This year-over-year decline is only partially offset by an 83,200 mt increase in volume sold into Western Europe along with valued gains into countries such as Japan, Pakistan, UAE and Mexico.

A media piece on the UAE as a back-door into China for canola oil was released this week. The volume of seed sold to the UAE is reported at 168,500 mt over the first two months, up from 18,400 mt in the same period of 2018-19. Over recent years, the UAE has imported Canadian canola with oil shipped to various markets, with 573,000 mt of Canadian canola shipped to this destination in 2018-19 and slightly over 1 mmt as recent as 2016-17. This year's activity seems more like normal business than a market-changer and a way to replace lost sales to China.

While September represents the first month of the crop year for soybeans, exports for the month were reported at 66,800 mt, down from the 151,400 mt shipped in the same month of 2018-19. No soybeans were shipped to China in September, down from 136,500 mt shipped in Sept. 2018. The CGC does not report a flow of exports through licensed facilities to China since a modest 2,700 mt was shipped in February.

September data points to a favorable movement of dry peas early in the crop year. Dry pea exports were reported at 508,900 mt in September, up sharply from the previous month and the 324,300 mt shipped in September 2018. At the same time, this volume remains 11% below the five-year average as reported by the CGC in the September report. The attached graphic shows the volume moved to China at 476,500 mt over the first two months of this crop year, well above the 346,900 shipped in 2018-19 and the three-year average of 283,433 mt.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @CliffJamieson

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