As of Aug. 12, Saskatchewan Agriculture reports that less than 1% of the province's crop has been harvested, which compares to the five-year average of 4%, an estimated 5% in 2018 and an estimated 7% in 2017. Weather forecasts and the pace of harvest stand to provide considerable support to futures and cash trade over the weeks to come.
By crop, an estimated 14% of the winter wheat, 19% of the fall rye, 1% of the lentils and 3% of the peas have been taken off. The bars on the attached chart tally the acres combined along with the aces swathed or ready to straight combine for 2019 (blue bars) along with the last two years (brown bars and grey bars). For example, as of Aug. 12, an estimated 30% of the winter wheat was estimated either combined, swathed or ready to ready to straight cut, which compares to 42% reported in 2018 and 77% reported in 2017 as of the mid-August report. Note this data is less concerning than it looks on the chart due to Statistics Canada's estimate of winter wheat acres remaining in Saskatchewan of just 104,500 acres in 2019.
This issue grows as we look at the larger crops. This report shows that none of the province's spring wheat has been swathed, combined or ready to straight combine as of the mid-August report. This is due to rounding, as the table data does show that an estimated 1% of the southeast region is swathed. This compares to an estimated 5% of the 2018 spring wheat that was either swathed, combined or straight cut as of the same week, while this number totals 3% in 2017. It is also interesting to note that Statistics Canada estimates the area seeded to spring wheat in Saskatchewan in 2017 at 6.955 million acres, growing to 7.827 million in 2018 and an estimated 8.697 million in 2019. This crop is not only behind, but there's more acres involved.
Over the past five years, the number of weeks between the first weekly report indicating the estimated harvest progress in the first half of August and the last report of harvest activity in late October ranged from 10-12 weeks, averaging close to 11 weeks.
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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
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