Canada Markets

Canada's Spring Wheat Yield Potential Based on Historical Trends

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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This chart points to prospective yields for 2019 spring wheat in Canada based on the 10-year trend (black line), 20-year trend (grey line) and the 30-year trend (brown line). These trends are extrapolated to result in a potential 2019 yield of 48.9 bpa to 53.3 bpa. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

The attached chart points to historical trends in Canada's spring wheat yields based on linear trends generated on an Excel chart; these trends have been extended to arrive at a prospective yield for 2019.

The 30-year trend (brown line) shows yields increasing by .7 bushels/acre, which can be extrapolated to reach an average yield of 48.9 bpa in 2019; that compares to the 50.5 bpa yield reported by Statistics Canada for 2018 and the five-year average of 48.8 bpa.

The 20-year trend, shown by the grey line, is increasing at a rate of 1 bpa on an annual basis and projects forward to a prospective yield of 51.96 bpa, consistent with the most recent AAFC forecast which is using an average wheat yield (excluding durum) of 52 bpa.

The 10-year trend, as indicated by the black line on the attached chart, is increasing at a rate of 1.27 bpa annually, which projects to a 2019 yield of 53.3 bpa.

Given Statistics Canada's March intentions report that included an estimate of 19.387 million seeded acres of spring wheat, the largest acreage seeded since close to 20.5 million acres were planted in 2001, production would range from 25.1 million metric tons (30-year trend) to 27.3 mmt (10-year trend). This compares to 23.5 mmt produced in 2018 and the five-year average of 21.5 mmt.

Using Statistics Canada's acreage estimates for durum wheat and winter wheat remaining for 2019, along with five-year average yields, Canada's all-wheat production would range from 32.8 mmt, based on the 30-year trend for spring wheat, to 35 mmt, based on the 10-year trend; this compares to the 2018 production of 31.769 mmt and the five-year average of 30.2 mmt. Note that the April AAFC forecast used a production estimate of 33.1 mmt, prior to the higher spring wheat acreage reported by Statistics Canada. AAFC should update their supply and demand estimates sometime this week. Friday's USDA report points to Canada's all-wheat production forecast of 34.5 mmt.

While Friday's USDA report points to Russia holding the top spot as the world's largest wheat exporter in 2019-20 at an estimated 36 mmt, early estimates for the crop year ahead could point to a race for the number two spot. Estimates reported include the European Union at 27 mmt, the U.S. at 24.49 mmt and Canada at 24 mmt.

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