Canada Markets

Farm Stocks a Major Factor in Grain Stocks Estimates

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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This chart highlights the year-over-year change in farm stocks, as of March 31, by province and by selected grains. Farm stocks were a major contributor to the estimates released by Statistics Canada on May 7. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

A year-over-year change in the level of farm stocks of grain was a major contributor to the data released in this week's Statistics Canada report. Statistics Canada commentary pointed out the overall drop in stocks was led by a drop in farm stocks for wheat (-15.6%), corn (-11.9%), barley (-28.5%), oats (-38.6%), dry peas (-32.5%), flax (-42.7%) and lentils (-15.6%), with the total year-over-year decrease in brackets.

In contrast, farm stocks of durum (9.3%) and canola (16.5%) were reported to rise year-over-year, with the total year-over-year increase shown in brackets.

As seen on the attached chart of selected crops, a significant drop in farm stocks in Saskatchewan is noted, with wheat stocks (excluding durum) down by 1.09 million metric tons over the past year, while the 2.6 mmt reported is the lowest reported since March 2008. It is also interesting to note that the increase in farm stocks of canola was the lowest of the three provinces in Saskatchewan, with farm stocks of canola forecast to rise by just 115,000 metric tons to 3.825 mmt. This compares to a 475,000 mt increase in Manitoba and a 625,000 mt increase estimated for Alberta.

A look at total farm stocks of major crops estimated for Saskatchewan, as of March 31, shows a total of 11.985 mmt, the lowest in six years and 18.8% below the five-year average. This is down sharply from the most recent March high for Saskatchewan's farm stocks of 19.341 mmt reported for March 2014.

In contrast, Manitoba's farm stocks total 4.767 mmt, down slightly from March 2018 and up 13.7% from the five-year average. Alberta's farm stocks are down slightly from March 2018 and are 0.8% higher than the province's five-year average.


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