As seen on the attached chart, wheat movement continues to lead the grains in terms of movement relative to recent years. As of week 36, or the week ending April 7 representing close to 70% of the Canadian crop year, cumulative wheat exports are reported at 12.4515 million metric tons. This volume is 1.655 mmt, or 15.3%, higher than the same period in 2017-18, while 17.3% higher than the five-year average.
Other commodities where the current pace of movement is ahead of both 2017-18 and the five-year average are seen in the data for barley, soybeans and corn. On a percentage basis, the movement of corn shines relative to recent years, up 115.3% from the same period in 2017-18, while 213.5% higher than the five-year average.
Cumulative exports for three of the selected crops trail both the 2017-18 pace and the five-year average pace. This includes the movement of durum, flax and canola. On a volume basis, canola exports trail the 2017-18 volume by 492,300 mt, or 7%, while is just .2% below the five-year average pace.
Relative to the most recent export demand projections released by AAFC, the pace of wheat movement continues to point to a pace that is higher than current projections. Over the past five years, an average of 60.7% of crop year exports were shipped through licensed channels as of week 36, a pace that would project to crop year shipments of 20.5 mmt, well-above the current 18.7 mmt forecast. Other crops that point to higher-than-projected export volumes are oats and barley, although tight stocks for both crops will be the limiting factor.
The current pace of durum exports may point to red flags given the historic pace of movement. Over the past five years, an average of 66.3% of total crop year shipments were realized through licensed facilities as of week 36, a historic pace that points to crop-year exports of 3.9 mmt, 200,000 mt lower than the current government forecast. Other crops where the current pace of movement may fall short of the current government forecasts seen in data for soybeans and dry peas. Canola movement is on track to reach the current AAFC target of 9.8 mmt, after this government forecast was revised lower by 1 mmt in the March supply and demand estimates.
DTN 360 Poll
This week's poll asks if weather forecasts in the U.S. that could lead to a switch from some corn acres to soybeans will have any effect on your planting decisions. You can weigh in with your thoughts on this poll, located on the lower right side of the DTN Canada Hone Page.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at email@example.com
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