Canada Markets

The Year-Over-Year Change in Global Oilseed Prices

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
Connect with Cliff:
This chart highlights the year-over-year change in FOB export prices for selected oilseeds from various shipping points, as reported by the European Commission based on International Grains Council data as of March 12. Canada's canola has fallen 14% year-over-year, equal to the change in Gulf soybeans while inexpensive relative to competing rapeseed. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

The USDA's March Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade report shows the estimate for global oilseed production in 2018-19 trimmed slightly from the previous month although remains at a record 593.01 million metric tons, up 3% from the previous crop year. Estimated ending stocks for 2018-19 are shown at 121.71 mmt, up 6% from the previous crop year.

According to weekly data reported by the European Commission and sourced from the International Grains Council, the largest year-over-year change in is shown for soybeans, with export prices FOB selected locations ranging from 14 to 19% below year-ago levels, measured in U.S. dollars. Despite a 105% year-over-year increase in forecast U.S. ending stocks, U.S. Gulf prices are reported to be up 1% over the past month, the only increase shown for the month reported for soybeans, while prices are down 14% from last year, the smallest change of the four points of origin reported for soybeans. While not shown, this report shows U.S. soy offers trending higher for six consecutive months to $352/mt USD, as of March 12.

Canadian canola appears a buy relative to the year-over-year move shown for competing rapeseed. Canadian canola offers are reported at $369/mt, down 14% year-over-year, a steeper drop than the 4% decline noted for Australian canola, the 5% drop in E.U. rapeseed and the 6% drop in Ukraine rapeseed. Canola's 14% drop is equal to the 14% drop faced in U.S. Gulf soybeans, despite facing a more favorable fundamental situation. Current stocks/use for U.S. soybeans is estimated at 21.9% by the USDA for 2018-19, while AAFC's February estimates for canola point to a 12.2% stocks/use ratio.

There should be no surprise that canola rallied as much as $7.70/mt on Thursday and market chatter quickly pointed to rumors of Chinese buying interest.


DTN 360 Poll

This week's poll asks if you are concerned about the court actions mounting against the use of Roundup and its alleged links to cancer. You can weigh in with your thoughts on this week's poll, found at the lower-right side of your DTN Canada Home Page.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at

Follow him on Twitter @Cliff Jamieson



To comment, please Log In or Join our Community .