Canada Markets

A Look at Wheat/Canola Deliveries Versus Demand

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The blue bars represent the cumulate volume of producer canola deliveries in excess of the cumulative demand as of week 31 (crush plus exports), with the 2018-19 amount calculated at a negative 10,600 metric tons, with deliveries failing to meet demand for the first time during this eight-year period. Despite a 20% year-over-year increase in licensed wheat exports as of week 31, producer deliveries have exceeded this demand by 2.357 million metric tons. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

Despite record canola supplies estimated for 2018-19, estimated at 22.942 million metric tons according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, year to date deliveries have been slow.

Cumulative producer deliveries into licensed facilities are reported at 11.2762 mmt as of week 31, or the week ending March 3, the lowest cumulative deliveries seen in three years. When compared to the cumulative demand over the first 31 weeks or 60% of the crop year (crush plus exports), deliveries have fallen 10,600 mt short of meeting the 11.287 mmt cumulative demand reported in the week 31 report. Not only have deliveries fallen short of disappearance, but cumulative demand is the lowest reported in three years.

The attached chart fails to show a blue bar for 2018-19 due to the small size of the 10,600 mt, but this bar dips into negative territory, or below the zero mark, for the first time in this eight-year period.

Cumulative data shows producers being wide open to deliver wheat (excluding durum). Cumulative exports are reported at 10.726 mmt as of week 31, a volume that is 17.2% higher than the same period in 2017-18 and 17% higher than the five-year average. Over this same period, producer deliveries totaled 13.083 mmt, up 20.3% from the same period in 2017-18 while 2.3568 mmt in excess of exports, as shown on the attached chart.

While the volume of wheat deliveries in excess of demand is far from the highest seen during the eight years shown on the chart, this volume jumps from the 2017-18 crop year at a time when demand itself is sharply higher.


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