Statistics Canada reported 829,640 metric tons of canola was crushed in January, down from the 846,281 mt crushed in December although 9.1% higher than the same month last year and 11% higher than the three-year average for this month. This can be seen on the attached chart, with the blue bars representing the current crop year, the brown bars representing the 2017-18 monthly volume while the black line represents the three-year average.
The cumulative crush volume is reported at 4.725 million metric tons as of January, the first six months of the crop year, up 1.9% from the same period in 2017-18 and 6% higher than the three-year average for this period.
As of January, the cumulative crush totals 51.4% of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's January crush estimate of 9.2 mmt. In 2017-18, 50% of the crop year's final crush volume was achieved in this six-month period, while over the past three years, an average of 49.9% of the crop year crush was achieved in this six-month period. This average pace points to the potential for a crop-year total crush of 9.469 mmt and could point to the potential for upward revisions in AAFC's forecast.
This crush continues to partially offset what remains viewed as disappointing export data, with a weak 69,800 mt exported in week 29 through licensed facilities. Cumulative exports total 5.5135 mmt, the lowest volume reported for this period in three years and down 6.7% from the same period in 2017-18. Over the past three years, an average of 53.9% of total crop year exports have been realized as of week 29, an average pace that projects to total crop year volumes of 10.2 mmt, as compared to AAFC's 11 mmt forecast.
The historical pace of disappearance would suggest that a potential upward revision in crush demand for the year would fall short of offsetting the decline in exports, which could lead to lower ideas for crop year demand in upcoming forecasts.
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