Based on the average pace of movement as of week 19, as shown for selected grains, projections for crop year exports remain higher than current government estimates for wheat, oats, barley and flax, although supplies will prove the limiting factor in some cases.
As seen on the attached chart, the current pace of wheat exports projects to crop year exports of 19.945 million metric tons, well-above AAFC's November estimate of 18 mmt and the 2017-18 exports of close to 17.5 mmt. As of week 19, exports of wheat through licensed facilities is reported to be 18.6% higher than realized in 2017-18 and 14.1% higher than the five-year average.
Over the past five years, an average of 34.6% of crop year exports were realized as of week 19. This would suggest a high likelihood of an upward revision in AAFC's estimates this month, with AAFC's current all-wheat estimate of 22.3 mmt well-below the USDA's most recent estimate of 24 mmt.
Canola exports of 3.68665 mmt as of week 19 are 3.8% lower than the same week in 2017-18 while 8.1% higher than the five-year average for this week. Over the past five years, an average of 33.9% of total crop year exports were achieved as of week 19, an average pace that would point to crop year exports of approximately 10.9 mmt. This is slightly higher than the 10.7 mmt realized over the same period in 2017-18 while well below AAFC's current estimate of 11.5 mmt which could lead to a lower revision this month.
Other crops where the current pace of exports is ahead of current AAFC crop year export pace is seen in oats, barley and flax exports, although the current pace points to a heavy weighing on front-end movement with crop year supplies a limiting factor. Week 19 exports of oats are reported at 655,700 mt, up 3.7% from last crop year, while the 911,800 mt of barley exported is up 34.7% from last year and the 112,500 mt of flax is up .6% from last year. Given the historical average pace of movement, crop year projections are calculated that are unattainable, given the current supplies estimates.
Of the selected crops, two other crops where exports are faring poorly relative to the historical pace of movement is seen in the movement of durum and dry peas. Given the five-year average pace of movement, projections for durum exports are calculated at 3.6 mmt, well-below the current 4.3 mmt target set by AAFC, while the export projection for dry peas is calculated at 2.4 mmt, below the current 2.6 mmt target set by AAFC.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
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