Ahead of Statistics Canada's final production reports due to be released on Dec. 6, just one of the many uncertainties surrounding the data to be released is the late harvest faced in Alberta and how the agency will deal with unharvested acres.
Alberta Agriculture's last crop report as of Oct. 30 estimates the spring wheat harvest at 96.1% complete, durum harvest at 95.4% complete, barley harvest at 95.6% complete, oats at 93.7% complete, canola at 91.7% complete and flax at 94.6% complete. The 2017 release of the final production estimates points to interviews conducted between Oct. 20 and Nov. 13, 2017, while released on Dec. 6.
Given Statistics Canada's current estimates for yields and harvested acres, the attached chart highlights the potential impact to production for various crops, as seen by the blue bars and against the primary vertical axis. The line with markers represents the percentage of the estimated Canadian crop that this volume represents, as measured against the secondary vertical axis, given current September estimates.
While the unharvested acreage and potential yields may pose a challenge in western prairie estimates found in the upcoming report, the quality of the late-harvested and unharvested crops adds a further element of uncertainty that may keep market watchers guessing for some time.
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