The Canadian Grain Commission's week 10 statistics show 431,000 metric tons of dry peas exported in the first 10 weeks of the crop year, or as of the week ending Oct. 7. This has raised industry concern, down 47.4% from the same week last crop year and the smallest volume shipped in this period seen since 2009/10.
Sparse data is available year-to-date with respect to how exports are being directed, although August data shows the volume shipped to China was down 19% from the same month in 2017/18, while there were no exports directed to Bangladesh and India, both countries that were shipped product in the same month of 2017/18.
Over the past five years, an average of 28.7% of crop year exports were shipped as of week 10, pointing to a front-loaded start to the crop year with week 10 representing only 19.2% of the crop year. This reached a recent high in 2015/16, with 35.5% of crop year exports realized in this 10-week period, while this percentage has fallen in each of the past two years, to 26.6% of crop year exports in 2017/18. Projecting forward the five-year average pace would point to crop year exports of 1.5 mmt, while the lowest percentage over the past five years would project to crop year exports of roughly 2 mmt. This is far below the current AAFC estimate of 2.9 mmt released in September, an estimate due to be revised within the next week.
Handling statistics may be sending mixed signals as of week 10. Commercial stocks are reported at 365,800 mt, which is 17% higher than this time last year and 9.5% higher than the five-year average, although is the lowest weekly volume reported in eight weeks. At the same time, western rail in-transit stocks are pegged at 15,700 mt, well above the volume reported in week 10 of 2017/18 but 67% below the five-year average for this week.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at email@example.com
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