The Canadian Grain Commission reported licensed exports for week 10 at 459,800 metric tons, the largest weekly volume shipped this crop year and the largest weekly volume shipped since week 5 of the 2017/18 crop year, or in over a year.
Cumulative wheat exports are off to a solid start, with cumulative exports reported at 3.621 million metric tons, well-ahead of the steady pace needed to reach the current AAFC target of 17.4 mmt and the highest cumulative exports reported as of this week in four years. This volume is 715,700 mt or 24.6% higher than the same period last crop year, while 12.8% higher than the five-year average.
Over the past five years, an average of 18.3% of total crop year exports were realized as of week 10, with this average pace projected forward suggesting total crop year exports to reach 19.8 mmt, well above AAFC's most recent September estimate of 17.4 mmt. At the same time, harvest delays, the bottlenecks caused due to the need for grain drying and the potential for a wider grade distribution could have a significant effect on Canada's potential this crop year.
This analysis perhaps falls closer in line with the USDA's October supply and demand data released Thursday, with Canada's export estimate for all-wheat (wheat and durum) left unchanged at 24 mmt, which is above the September AAFC estimate of 22.2 mmt.
On Thursday, USDA estimated Australia's export potential at 13 mmt, down 26.5% from the previous five-year average and would be the lowest volume exported by this country in 11 years. Russia's export potential was left unchanged this month at 35 mmt, with a great deal of speculation suggesting this remains too high. Opinions exist that exports from Europe are over stated at 23 mmt, while U.S. exports are forecast at 27.9 mmt, unchanged from last month and up 13.8% from last year. Weekly export data in the U.S. shows that cumulative sales are down 18% from last year while cumulative shipments are 28% behind the year-ago pace, a slow start given current projections.
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