Two trends collide to point to the potential for upward revisions to come in Statistics Canada's final production estimates, which are due to be released in early December based on November surveys. These could prove bearish for Canadian grain markets.
The first is the yield realized as the harvest moved from the southern regions of the Prairies to the north where rain was much more plentiful, most evident in the western Prairies. The second is the ongoing tendency for higher production estimates for most crops to be reported in Statistics Canada's final release.
This week's Saskatchewan Crop Report could provide a glimpse of what is to come. Provincial yield estimates were updated this week from the last estimates released, as of Oct. 2. The estimated provincial yield was increased by 1 bushel per acre for hard red spring wheat, by 5 bpa for durum, 3 bpa for oats, 3 bpa for barley, 1 bpa for flax, 1 bpa for peas and 213 pounds/acre for chickpeas. While the canola estimate was left unchanged and some crops did see a modest downward revision in yield potential, it is clear that total production is larger than seen in previous estimates.
The attached chart shows the potential production change for the province when using Statistics Canada harvested acre estimates in conjunction with today's Saskatchewan Agriculture yield estimates to calculate output, rather than Statistics Canada's most recent model-based estimates. What jumps out is close to a 700,000-metric-ton increase in both wheat and durum production for the province. When combined with potential increases for barley, flax, lentils and peas, this far outweighs the potential for downward revisions that could occur for oats and soybeans.
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