Week 25 Canadian Grain Commission statistics show combined wheat and durum or all-wheat exports from licensed facilities at 178,100 metric tons in week 25, the week ending Jan. 22, down for the second week and well-below the 395,800 mt shipped in the same week in 2015/16. This is the smallest weekly volume shipped since week 8, excluding the combined week 21/22 volume of 272,600 mt shipped over the holiday season.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's Jan. 30 Canada: Grains and Oilseeds Supply and Disposition tables continue to hold tightly to an aggressive export forecast for the crop year relative to where we are at as of week 25, almost the first half of the year. Today's data release saw the durum export estimate trimmed by 200,000 mt, to 4.5 million metric tons, while the wheat export forecast was left unchanged at 16.7 mmt, for a total of 21.2 mmt.
As seen on the attached chart, the green line represents the current-year cumulative all-wheat export volume as a percentage of the same week in 2015/16, as measured against the secondary vertical axis on the right. As of week 25, cumulative combined wheat and durum exports represent 81.7% of the volume moved in the same period in the previous crop year.
As well, the sideways-trending purple line represents AAFC's projected 2016/17 exports as a percentage of 2015/16 exports for the same period. Today's report which lowered all-wheat exports to 21.2 mmt represents 97.6% of the total exports reported for 2015/16. These two numbers -- 81.7% of last year's volume realized as of week 25, compared to total exports forecast at 97.6% of last year, the government's view of what can be achieved, remains the challenge for the balance of the crop year.
As well, commercial stocks of all-wheat as of week 25, reported at 3.1713 mmt, are the lowest reported in the past five years and are 13.4% lower than the five-year average.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at email@example.com
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