As of week 22 or the week ending Jan. 1, prairie producers have delivered a total of 21.252 million metric tons of grain into the licensed elevator system. This is up 451,200 metric tons or 2.2% from the same period last year, while is 3.187 mmt higher than the five-year average. Looking at the summary page which shows total licensed deliveries, producers have delivered 1 mmt less wheat than the same period in 2015/16 while have delivered roughly 1.1 mmt more canola and 725,000 mt more peas than the same period in the previous crop year.
Producers have clearly pushed more canola into the system in this period than ever before. Over the past five years, an average of 1.1 mmt more wheat was delivered than canola over this period of the crop year, ranging as high as nearly 2 mmt more wheat than canola delivered into the licensed system in 2013/14.
The second group of bars represents shipping from primary elevators. While shipping remains well-above the five-year average, year-to-date movement is .7% behind the volume shipped in this 22-week period in 2015/16. While not shown, movement from Manitoba is .8% ahead of last year's pace, movement from Alberta is 2.4% ahead of last year's pace and shipments from Saskatchewan is 2.4% lower than last year's volume in the first 22 weeks.
As seen in the third grouping of bars which measures country stocks, elevator space remains in good shape, despite being higher than year-ago levels and the five-year average, as of week 22 or the week ending Jan. 3. Country stocks were estimated at 3.3076 mmt, the lowest stocks reported since week 11 or the week ending Oct. 16. This volume is 7.3% higher than this time last year, while 13.6% higher than the five-year average at this time. At the same time, current stocks represent only 46.6% of reported primary elevator storage capacity and 71.7% of estimated elevator working capacity.
DTN 360 Poll
This week's poll question: Canadian canola crush and exports are ahead of last year’s pace. Can the industry maintain this pace of demand?
You can weigh in with your thoughts on DTN's poll, found at the lower-right side of the DTN Home Page.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
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