Week 18 data from the Canadian Grain Commission, covering data to the week ending Dec. 4, shows activity for the first one-third of the Canadian marketing year in the licensed handling system. As seen on the attached chart of selected commodities, exports of wheat, durum and barley lag last year's pace, as well as the five-year average pace, while exports of canola, oats, soybeans and dry peas are ahead of average pace (blue bars as compared to the grey bars).
As of week 18, exports of Canada's wheat (excluding durum) are reported at 5.021 million metric tons, 1.15 mmt or 18.8% lower than the volume shipped in the same period last year and also below the five-year average. This cumulative volume is 760,000 metric tons behind the cumulative pace needed to reach the current AAFC target of 16.7 mmt, excluding the impact of both flour exports and unlicensed exports. Friday's USDA report saw the estimate to Canada's all-wheat production increased by 200,000 mt to 31.7 mmt, while exports were left unchanged from last month at 21.5 mmt which is close to the 21.7 mmt all-wheat exports estimated by AAFC.
Exports of durum are reported at 1.203 mmt, 13.7% or 190,500 mt behind the same period in 2015 and 23.6% below the five-year average. Current cumulative exports are 528,000 mt below the steady pace needed to reach the current 5 mmt export target set by Canada's AAFC.
Exports of barley, at 313,500 mt, are below the volume shipped in the first 18 weeks in the 2015/16 crop year while also below the five-year average. Current exports are behind the pace needed to reach AAFC's target of 1.950 mmt released in their November report.
Oat exports are higher than the 2015/16 pace as well as the five-year average. As of week 18, 469,300 mt have been shipped, 21.8% higher than the same period in 2015/16 and 8% higher than the five-year average exports from licensed facilities. Cumulative volumes, however, fall short of the volume needed to remain on a steady pace to reach the 2.4 mmt target set by AAFC.
Exports of canola is 265,000 mt behind the volume shipped in the first 18 weeks in 2015/16 although is higher than the average volume shipped in this period over the past five years. Year-to-date volumes total 3.2004 mmt and are just 88,000 mt below the cumulative pace needed to achieve the current AAFC estimate for crop year exports at 9.5 mmt. Friday's USDA report held steady their forecast for exports at 9.7 mmt, while expecting Canada to build stocks on a year-over-year basis.
Exports of soybeans through licensed facilities are reported at 2.332 mmt, up 24.3% from last year and 34% higher than the three-year average. Year-to-date exports are well-ahead of the pace needed to reach the current AAFC target of 4.2 mmt.
Exports of dry peas through licensed facilities, reported at 1.702 mmt, are 24.8% higher than the same period in 2015/16 and 73.8% higher than the five-year average for this period. This cumulative volume is well ahead of the pace required to achieve AAFC's target of 3.2 mmt.
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