Canada Markets

For the second time this harvest, the week-over-week increase of the crop harvested was just 6% of the total crop to be harvested, with 38% of the province's crop estimated to be off as of Sept. 12. As seen on the attached chart, this compares to the 52% combined as of the same week last year and the five-year average of 44%. Most areas of the province received some amount of moisture accumulation, with some of the largest accumulation seen in areas of the southeast region, an area south of Regina and an area to the southeast of Wynyard.

By region, the harvest pace in the West-Central region of the province and the Northeast region are slightly ahead of their respective five-year averages. All other regions lag their average pace, with the Southwest the furthest behind its five-year average. While data for the past years shows the Southwest region to be consistently ahead of the other five regions at this time, only 47% was harvested in this region as of Sept. 12 which is down from 75% last year and behind the five-year average of 61.6% at this time. This is also behind the Southeast at 52% complete.

By crop, the harvest of peas, barley and oats are on par with their respective five-year averages. Progress is furthest behind for both durum and canola. An estimated 30% of the durum crop is harvested as compared to the five-year average of 44%, due to delays in the southwestern region. An estimated 25% of the canola is off, which compares to the five-year average of 38.2%.

Limited quality estimates were released in this report, with durum production estimated to see only 19% fall into the top two grades, while a further 30% is expected to grade 3 CWAD and the balance is expected to be large No. 4s and 5s. The 19% grading in the two top grades compares to the 60% achieved last year and the 10-year average of 64.2%. This is the second challenging year for the durum crop in three years, with an estimated 15% falling into the two top grades in 2014. When combined with the below average quality crop produced last year, quality will become a significant issue in the upcoming year. As of week 52 CGC data, export terminals have 338,500 mt of durum in store, of which 40% graded a No 1 or No 2.

Saskatchewan Agriculture also reports 46% of the province's lentils to fall into the top two grades. This falls far short of the 75% achieved last year and the five-year average of 76.3% falling into the high grades. An estimated 84% of pea production is expected to fall into the top two grades, slightly below the five-year average of 90%.

The National Weather Service precipitation maps shows Saskatchewan mostly free of significant accumulations over the upcoming seven days, while DTN charts shows the daily highs to be 4-6 C above normal over the next five days over almost the entire prairies.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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