Canada Markets

Historical April through July Demand for Selected Crops

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The blue bars represent April 1-through-July 31 disappearance for selected crops (April 1-through-August 31 in the case of corn and soybeans), while the green bars represent the five-year average disappearance, measure in metric tons on the primary vertical axis. The red line represents this disappearance as a percentage of total annual disappearance in 2014/15, while the purple line represents the five-year average disappearance as a percentage of the five-year average of total demand. Both lines are measured against the secondary vertical axis. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

Movement of grain from western terminals remains ahead of historical pace, with terminal exports of all grain reported at 24.5 million metric tons as of March 13 or week 32, up 7.4% from the same week last year and 29% above the five-year average, according to Canadian Grain Commission data.

It also looks like there's favorable movement to follow, with the latest Grain Monitoring Program Performance Update showing the vessel lineup at Vancouver for week 33 shipping increasing by four from the previous week to a total of 30 vessels. This compares to the weekly average of 18 vessels per week in the past year. The Prince Rupert vessel count is reported to have increased by one to a total of four vessels, which is equal to the one-year average.

The attached chart provides a glimpse of the total disappearance of selected grains in the April 1-through-July 31 period, or the April 1-through-August 31 period in the case of soybeans and corn, based on the difference between Statistics Canada's March 31 Canadian grain stocks and the estimated year-end stocks. This is shown by the blue bars, which represent the 2014/15 crop year, while the green bars represent the five-year 2010/11 through 2014/15 average, as measure in metric tons on the primary vertical axis on the left.

For example, the total wheat disappearance in the final four months, or 33% of the crop year, was 9.326 million metric tons in 2015, while the five-year average was 8.215 mmt. Canola disappearance in the 2015 period was 6 mmt, while over the past five years averaged 5.027 mmt.

The red and purple lines show the disappearance in the final months of the crop year as a percentage of the total crop year disappearance, as plotted against the secondary vertical axis on the right. In both 2014/15 and on average over the past five years, 35% of the disappearance in wheat takes place in the final four months or 33% of the crop year. Over the past five years, 32.5% of the total canola disappearance took place in the final four months, while 35% of the disappearance was seen in this period in 2014/15.

While this data provides a glimpse of what may be to come over the balance of the crop year, this may be of interest when combined with the March 31 Statistics Canada stocks report, due to be released on May 6.


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