Canada Markets

Canada's August-through-December Wheat Export Performance

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The blue bars represents volumes of wheat shipped by Canada to Asia and the top five Canadian wheat buyers in the August-through-December period, as measured against the primary vertical axis. The red line with markers indicates the percent change in cumulative volumes realized in the past year while the green line represents the percent change from the five-year average, as measured against the secondary vertical axis. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

Tuesday's release of Statistics Canada's Exports of grains by final destination shows that a combination of Canada's wheat quality, extremely low global freight rates and weak currency has helped wheat exports through the current challenging global situation in the August-through-December period or first five months of the crop year.

Total exports to all destinations for wheat (excluding durum) are pegged at 7.639 million metric tons, up 3% from the same period in 2014/15 and 17.8% above the five-year average. As seen on the attached chart, key to this success is the 2.96 mmt shipped to Asian destinations, 37.4% of the total volume shipped and also a volume which is up 38.3% from the previous crop year and 29.2% above the five-year average.

The five-largest buyers of Canadian wheat in the five-month period are the United States (767,546 mt), Indonesia (753,600 mt), Japan (618,500 mt), Bangladesh (571,500 mt) and Peru (565,200 mt). Substantial year-over-year gains have been achieved in volumes shipped to four of the five markets, with the U.S. market being the lone exception.

While the U.S. remains the top customer measured in volume, 2015/16 cumulative volume through December is 6.9% lower than the same period in 2014/15 and 16.8% below the five-year average.

Of the four countries discussed where volumes have increased this crop year, the year-over-year increase has ranged from 16.8% in Bangladesh to a 60.8% increase in volumes shipped to Peru, as indicated by the red line with markers on the attached chart. Cumulative volumes shipped to these same four countries have also ranged from 23.2% above the five-year average as achieved in Japan to 57.7% above the five-year average which is achieved in volumes traded to Peru.

In unrelated wheat news Tuesday, a Canadian shipment of wheat suggested by social media sources to total 8,000 metric tons, has been rejected in Egypt due to traces of ergot. This shipment may further expose inconsistencies in Egypt's internal handling of quality issues and may even further alienate that country from global wheat suppliers. Egypt is the world's largest wheat buyer.


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