Canada Markets

Canada's overall merchandise trade exports were reported at $44.9 billion in October, nearly .1% higher than September and 11.5% higher than October 2013. Exports of farm, fishing and intermediate food products was reported at $2.314 billion, which is down 8.6% from September as well as well as 3.7% below year-ago levels.

Dry pea exports for October were reported at 309,220 metric tonne, well below the September export volume, although peas continue to leave the country at a rapid pace. In the first three months of this crop year, 1.27 million metric tonnes has been shipped, with the most recent targets set by AAFC indicating an export target of 2.9 mmt for the crop year. This year-to-date volume is roughly 41% above 2013 exports reported for the same period while roughly 49% above the average of the previous three years. In the first three months of this crop year, approximately 44% of the 2.9 mmt export target has been reached.

The dry pea situation is made more interesting when one considers that Statistics Canada lowered the estimated production for peas from 3.508 mmt reported in October to 3.445 in Thursday's report. This is a 13% drop from year-ago production, creating a bullish case for peas and will result in an interesting situation over the balance of the crop year.

The month of October saw 302,975 mt of lentils shipped, almost double the September volume. Year-to-date, 602,105 mt have been shipped out of the 1.6 mmt export forecast released by AAFC in November. This volume is 34% above year-ago volumes and is 58% higher than the three year average for this time. So far this crop year, approximately 38% of the 1.6 mmt lentil export target set by AAFC has been shipped.

Thursday's Statistics Canada report estimated lentil production at 1.837 mmt, 4.6% above the preliminary estimate released in early October although 15.5% below year-ago production and stocks should be expected to remain relatively tight.

Exports of canary seed in October totaled 12,747 mt, slightly lower than September's volume. Crop year-to-date, 40,410 mt has been exported, 22% higher than the first three months of 2013/14 and 33% above the average of the past three years. The current target for canary seed exports is 130,000 mt, with 31% of this volume shipped in the first three months of the crop year.

Thursday's Statistics Canada report pegged the annual production at 125,000 mt, 4.7% below year-ago volumes and below the 138,800 mt projected in the preliminary estimates released in October. This places 2014 canary seed production well below the five- and 10-year average production and will tighten what was already a tight balance sheet. Supplies will be rationed and there could be little more than bin-bottoms by the end of the crop year.

In the month of October, 11,585 mt of mustard was exported, with the year-to-date volume reaching 28,902 mt. This volume is 16% behind year-ago volumes and 5% below the average of the past three years. With a current export target set at 135,000 mt, current year-to-date exports represent 21.4% of the annual target at the end of the first three months, behind the pace needed to achieve this target.

Thursday's Statistics Canada report indicated mustard production at 198,000 mt, 28.2% above year-ago levels and 10.8% above the preliminary estimate released in October. This places 2014 production well above the five- and 10-year average production which should limit this crop's potential this crop year.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

(ES)

© Copyright 2014 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.