Canada Markets

On Thursday of this week, the USDA is expected to increase the production potential for both the U.S. corn and soybean crops, with both reports expected to be bearish with record yields and production expected.

A recent crop tour of southwestern Ontario conducted by Great Lakes Grain is also suggesting a possibility of a record corn yield in Ontario while soybean yield is estimated to fall just below the province's 10-year average as reported by Statistics Canada. The caveat is that supportive weather will be required throughout September to see these crops reach their full potential.

Corn yields are expected to reach 169.1 bushels per acre, 5.4% above last year and well above the 10-year average of 148.9 bpa. Statistics Canada's July estimate suggested an average yield of 157.8 bpa. The most recent estimate would lead to a 7.2% boost in production over Stats Can's July estimates, leading to production potential of 316.3 million bushels or 8.03 million metric tonnes, based on Stats Can's planted/harvested acre estimates, resulting in the lowest production level seen in three years given this year's reduction in seeded acres.

The same tour estimated the provincial soybean crop at 42.8 bpa, down 5.5% from last year and just slightly below the 10-year average of 43.05 bpa in the province. Statistics Canada's current estimate based on July surveys is 43.2 bpa, which suggests current projections may be slightly overstated. Based on current planted and harvested acre projections, production potential could be in the range of 129.7 million bushels or 3.53 mmt, which would be record production for the province given this year's surge in planted acres.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

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