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Here's a quick wrap-up of data from the two USDA reports released March 31: the Quarterly Stocks report, as of March, which estimates crop inventories; and the Prospective Planting report, which provides a look at estimated acres for 2014, as it applies to some the smaller crops.

Total spring wheat acres in the U.S. are set to grow by 4% from 2013 to 12 million acres. Of this acreage, 11.3 ma is expected to be hard red spring acres. This HRS acreage is an increase of 362,000 acres over last year and is just slightly below the five-year average of 11.96 ma. The largest shifts in acreage are seen in Montana, where total spring wheat acres are forecast to fall 350,000 acres; Washington, where acres are expected to rise 100,000 acres; and North Dakota, where an increase in acres of 800,000 acres is expected.

Durum acres in the U.S. are expected to grow 22% to 1.799 ma. This is acreage still remains below the five-year average of 2.02 million acres. The largest acreage shifts were seen in Montana, where acres are expected to grow 8.9% to 550,000 mt, while North Dakota's acreage is to jump 38.4% to 1.1 ma.

March 1 inventory totaled 38.1 million bushels, 10% lower than March 1 2013. March through May disappearance has averaged 15.757 mb over the past five years, which would suggest a 22.343 mb carryout given average demand, which would be below the five-year average of 28.8 mb.

Oat acres are expected to fall 7.2% to 2.794 ma in 2014. This is below the five-year average of 2.96 ma and shows that even the rally seen in the futures this spring because of logistical challenges faced in moving Canadian oats is not enough to encourage acres of this crop. The largest producing state is Texas, where acreage is expected to remain steady at 450,000 acres. Wisconsin is set to plant 260,000 acres, up 5,000 acres from last year, while South Dakota is forecast to plant 255,000 acres, down 5,000 from last year. North Dakota is forecast to plant 210,000 acres, down 15,000 acres from last year.

Oat stocks were reported at 35.1 mb as of March 1, which is 33% below the inventory reported for March 1 2013. The largest change was seen in commercial inventories, which were 55% below year-ago levels. The average March-through-May demand over the past five years has totaled 16.36 mb, which would point to an approximate 18.74 mb carry-out given average demand which would be the tightest ending stocks on record.

Barley acres are expected to fall 9% to 3.165 ma. This is the lowest acres planted since 2011/12 and just slightly below the five-year average of 3.22 ma. The largest shifts in acres are expected to take place in Montana, where acres are expected to fall by 90,000 acres to 900,000 acres, while North Dakota is also expected to reduce acres by 110,000 acres to 650,000 acres. An increase of 30,000 acres is expected in Idaho, where acres are expected to reach 660,000 acres.

Barley stocks as of March 1 were reported at 122 mb, 4% above the March 1 stocks reported for 2013. The five-year average disappearance for the March through June period is 40.3 mb, which would suggest an ending stocks projection of 81.7 mb given average demand for the 2013/14 crop year, just slightly below the five-year average of 86.8 mb.

Canola acres are expected to increase 29% from 2013 to reach 1.737 ma. This comes close to a retracement to the 1.765 ma planted in 2012. By far the largest jump is a 38% increase in North Dakota to 1.270 ma, although still below the 1.460 ma planted in 2012. Another significant jump sees a 22% jump in the State of Oklahoma to 250,000 acres.

Total sunflower acres in the U.S. are expected to reach 1.592 ma, up 1% from 2013. Oil sunflowers are expected to dip .9% to 1.267 ma, with an interesting jump of 34% in North Dakota to reach 570,000 acres, while South Dakota is expected to see a 21% drop to 440,000 acres. There is an increase in interest in non-oil sunflowers, which are expected to rise 9.6% to 325,000 acres. Again, North Dakota is expected to increase 35% to 100,000 acres, while South Dakota is forecast to see acres fall by 13% to 100,000 acres.

Total sunflower stocks as of March 1 were reported at 806 million pounds, down 33% from the March 1 2013 inventory. Oil sunflower inventories totaled 612 million pounds, 39% below year-ago levels. Non-oil sunflower inventories totaled 194 million pounds, 1% above year-ago levels.

2014 flax acres are expected to jump 80% to 326,000 acres in the U.S. The largest adjustment is a 100% increase in acres to 300,000 acres in North Dakota. The forecast of 326,000 acres is close to a retracement back to 2012 acres of 344,000 acres.

Dry bean acres are forecast to increase 24.5% to 1.686 ma in 2014. This fails to return acres to the 1.7425 ma grown in 2012. Once again, the State of North Dakota is not only the largest producer, expected to grow 620,000 acres, but is also set to post the largest increase of 40.9% over year-ago acres. In total, 18 States are tracked by the USDA for dry bean production, with other large producers being Michigan, Minnesota and Nebraska.

Lentil acres in 2014 are expected to fall 11.6% to 320,000 acres. The four producing States followed by the USDA, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota and Washington, are all expected to see acres drop. Dry pea acres are expected to increase 7% to 921,000 acres. The largest producer is Montana which is expecting to see an 18% increase over year-ago levels to reach 520,000 acres.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

(ES)

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