Canada Markets

Canadian grain exports reported by the Canadian Grain Commission in the Week 29 Grain Statistics Weekly totaled 583,700 mt for the week, largely due to the largest reported wheat exports seen in 20 weeks, which includes data for the week ending Feb. 23.

Wheat exports in Week 29 totaled 398,100 mt, above the volume needed in this week to stay on track to meet the recently revised export target of 17 million metric tonnes for the year. Year-to-date exports were reported at 8.269 million metric tonnes, which is 852,000 mt behind the steady pace needed to meet the annual goal. Note that this study excludes the impact of flour sales, which are also included in AAFC targets.

Canola exports in Week 29 totaled 96,900 mt, behind the average of the previous four weeks which totaled 124,000 metric tonnes. This is below the 169,200 mt needed this week to stay on track to meet the recently revised export target by AAFC of 8.1 mmt. Year-to-date, 4.137 mmt have been shipped, which is 379,000 met behind the steady pace needed to meet the annual target. Bloomberg reported this week that Oil World views global rapeseed/canola trade falling to three-year lows in the first six months of 2014 due to a made-in-Canada "supply shortage."

The lack of oat export volumes from Canada helped drive oat futures to all-time highs this week, with U.S. oat mills running dangerously low on supplies. Week 29 exports totaling 9,800 mt, with year-to-date volumes at 548,100 mt. At the same time last year, 679,700 mt had been shipped. This is well behind the 1.115 mmt needed to stay on the steady pace to meet the 2 mmt target for 2013/14 oat exports. This supply shortage in the U.S. is expected to last for months to come as Canadian railroads intentionally focus on movement to the western ports. This is seen in the narrowing of the May/July spread, which finished the week at a 59 1/4 cent inverse, up from 44 3/4 cents the week prior an indication that the commercial sector is becoming increasingly bullish.

Flax exports through licensed facilities totaled just 1,800 mt in Week 29, while the year-to-date volume totaled 188,100 mt. This is ahead of last year's same-week volume of 159,600 mt. The year-to-date volume is approximately 133,000 mt behind the steady pace needed to achieve the 575,000 mt export target set by AAFC for the crop year.

Dry pea exports in Week 29 totaled 24,300 mt, while year-to-date shipments total 1.078 mmt. This is just slightly above the volume of exports at the same time last year, and is 511,000 mt behind the steady pace needed to meet the 2.850 mmt export target set by AAFC.

Barley exports totaled 3,100 mt for the week, while year-to-date exports total 641,600 mt. This is well below the 1.171 mmt volume needed to keep on pace to meet the 2.1 mmt export target, although the export of malt is excluded which would narrow the gap.

Overall stocks in western ports have improved, reported at 575,400 mt. This volume represents roughly 52% of the 1.1 mmt terminal capacity on the west coast, while is a drastic improvement from the 400,500 mt reported a week ago. Last year's Week 29 commercial stocks in west coast terminals totaled 890,800 mt.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

(ES)

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