Canada Markets

Data indicating movement of some grains ahead of past years will provide little comfort to the industry given the sheer volume that needs to move and the fact that movement is behind schedule as much as 51,000 cars, as indicated by an unconfirmed social media release.

The current backlog in shipping will be addressed by a delegation appointed by Premier Brad Wall of Saskatchewan to meet with industry representatives as well as to pressure the federal government to keep the issue on the priority list. Saskatchewan's Agriculture Minister, the Economy Minister and the Infrastructure Minister as well as the Legislative Secretary to the Agriculture Minister will be involved, with the press release suggesting the possibility of legislative actions to invoke accountability in the supply chain if improvements are not made. Meetings are to begin this week.

Wheat exports as of week 26, the mid-point of the Canadian crop year, are reported at 7.640 million metric tonnes. As indicated on the attached chart, this is 14.6% above year-ago levels and 21.3% above the three-year average. Canada's 2013 wheat production (excluding durum) was 37.4% higher than 2012.

Durum exports as of week 26 totaled 2.256 mmt, which is 2.9% behind year-ago levels although 14.7% above the three-year average. Week 26 visible stocks in licensed storage totaled 626,300 mt, of which 220,400 mt was in store terminal positions. Last year at this time, visible stocks were 840,700 mt, of which 586,700 mt was in store terminal positions.

The poorest export movement seen in Canadian grains is in oats and barley. Barley exports are reported at 501,700 mt as of week 26, which is 36.8% below 2012, while 31.4% below the three-year average. Oat shipments, caught squarely in the cross-fire of poor north-south movement, are reported at 521,900 mt as of week 26, which is 18% below year-ago volumes and 21.7% behind the three-year average.

Flax movement is favorable compared to recent years as of week 26, although given a year-over-year increase in production of 46%, challenges lie ahead. At 185,200 mt, flax shipments from licensed facilities are 19.5% ahead of last year and 19.7% ahead of the three-year average.

Canola exports at the mid-point remain disappointing, given that reports indicate a growing global demand. Canada has exported 3.788 mmt as of week 26, which is 6% below year-ago levels and 8.3% below the three-year average. Canola's year-over-year growth in production was 29.5%.

Dry pea exports are reported at 964,500 mt as of week 26, which is 8.9% above year-ago levels although 10% below the three-year average.

(ES)

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