Canada Markets

Since week 11, Canadian pea exports have slowed drastically, with only one week of exports (week 18) coming close to the weekly volume required to meet the current target of 2.750 million metric tonnes as forecast by Agriculture and Agri Food Canada; this is shown on the attached chart where the weekly shipments (green bars) are falling short of the weekly volume required as indicated by the sideways trending blue line.

While the cumulative volume shipped (red line) was above the pace needed to meet the annual forecast for a number of weeks earlier in the crop year (upward-sloping black line), from week 14 forward the cumulative volume has slipped below the steady cumulative pace to meet target.

The dry pea carryout is currently forecast to increase 200% to 520,000 mt, the highest carryout seen since the 2010/11 crop year when 535,000 mt were carried out. Lagging exports are undoubtedly tied to the logistical snarl which is affecting all grains. However, an increase in the acres planted to pulses in India may also be affecting Canada's export potential at the current.

As of Dec. 27 data, total plantings of Indian Rabi or winter crops totals 139.4 million acres, up 3.7% from year ago levels. Of this acreage, pulse acres total 34.1 ma, up 3.8% from year ago levels. The Indian Agriculture Ministry has pegged the 2012/13 pulse production at 18.45 mmt, while the 2013/14 target is 19 mmt.

As of the November trade numbers provided by the CGC, Canada has exported 367,600 mt of peas to China so far this crop year, which is up 154,400 mt or 72% from the year-to-date volume at the same time last year. At the same time, Canada has only shipped 274,000 mt of peas to India this crop year, down 114,100 mt or 29.4% from year-ago levels.

In the 2012/13 crop year, the CGC reports a total of 953,900 metric tonnes shipped to India, with a further 533,200 mt shipped to China.

Cash bids on the Prairies have slipped in recent weeks, with the most recent Saskatchewan Agriculture data indicating bids delivered to Saskatchewan plants have fallen to $10.46/bu. for greens, $5.93/bu for yellows and $5.15/bu for feed peas. Pulse crops may continue under pressure as producers seek opportunities to generate cash flow by offering product, while opportunities may be limited for many other grains.

Pulse markets could face further pressure ahead as producers discouraged by the wheat and canola markets this crop year are suggesting that increased pulse acres may be the answer, which could lead to troublesome supplies next crop year.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

(ES)

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