Canada Markets

Despite the challenges faced by the industry, including a late harvest as well as capacity issues experienced, week 20 wheat exports are well ahead of both the 2012 week 20 volume and the 2010 through 2012 three-year average of week 20 shipments: 6.395 million metric tonnes were shipped as of week 20, according the Canadian Grain Commission's Grain Statistics Weekly, which is more than 1.5 mmt ahead of year-ago levels.

As indicated by the black marker, approximately 37% of the annual export target for wheat has been shipped as of Dec 22. Despite the pace of movement, the cumulative total remains behind the steady pace needed to meet the recently revised AAFC export target of 17.3 mmt by roughly 259,000 mt.

Durum exports as of December 22 totaled 1.704 mmt, behind year-ago levels although ahead of the three-year average. With 38.5% of the 2013/14 crop year behind us, approximately 37% of the recently revised export target of 4.650 mt has been achieved. Exports to date are behind the steady pace required to meet the annual target by approximately 84,500 mt.

As of Dec 22, oat exports through licensed facilities are behind both the 2012 pace as well as behind the three-year average and the pace required to meet the 2.2 mmt export target forecast by AAFC; 19.6% of the annual target has been reached to-date, while exports so far are approximately 415,000 mt behind the steady pace needed to meet the AAFC target.

Barley exports in the first 20 weeks of the crop year total 448,750 mt, also behind both last year's week 20 cumulative total as well as behind the three-year average; 19.5% of the 2.3 mmt of projected export target has been achieved, while to date, the cumulative total is roughly 436,000 mt behind the steady pace required to meet the annual target.

Flax exports, at 131,200 mt as of December 22, are ahead of both the 2012 volume as well as the average over the 2010 through 2012 period; 22.8% of the annual export target of 575,000 mt has been achieved to date, although exports to-date are 90,000 mt behind the steady pace required to meet the annual target.

As of December 22, canola exports totaled 2.988 mmt, behind the year-to-date exports in both 2012 and the average week 20 exports over the past three years. So far, 36.5% of the current AAFC sales forecast has been achieved. In order to achieve the 8.2 mmt sales forecasts, 157,692 mt/week must be shipped over the 52-week crop year, with current exports 165,000 mt behind the steady pace required to meet the 8.2 mmt annual sales target.

Dry pea exports as of week 20 are reported at 889,520 mt, or approximately 32% of the annual AAFC target of 2.750 mmt. This level of exports is ahead of 2012 exports as of the same week, although is behind the 2010 to 2012 average exports as of the same week. Exports as of week 20 are approximately 168,000 mmt behind the steady pace needed to meet the 2013/14 target.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

(ES)

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