Canada Markets

Very few changes were made to the pulse and special crop supply and demand tables released by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada this week in their monthly Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops.

2012/13 chickpea exports were raised 5,000 metric tonnes to 70,000 mt, which resulted in a lower carryouts in both 2012/13 and 2013/14 by that same amount. While an improvement from the July estimate, stocks-to-use ratios are suggested to remain burdensome for 2012/13 at 34% and at 51% for 2013/14. Chances are that stocks will continue to shrink on paper, as Ag Canada has pegged 2013/14 production at 1,623 pounds/ac, while Saskatchewan Agriculture pegged chickpea yields in Southwestern Saskatchewan at 1,400 pounds in their most recent crop report. Given this scenario this could shave approximately 21,000 mt from Ag Canada's expected production.

Export potential for mustard in each of 2012/13 and 2013/14 was increased by 5,000 mt to 120,000 mt each year. This has the impact of tightening 2012/13 carryout stocks to 45,000 mt and 2013/14 carryout stocks to 20,000 mt. From the attached chart, we see that despite an increase in estimated production for 2013/14, as shown by the blue bars, the stocks-to-use ratio, shown as a percentage which is indicated by the red line, is falling sharply.

Given that Saskatchewan Agriculture has forecast mustard yields ranging from 1,100 to 1,250 pounds per acre across the four producing regions of the province, it is likely that the situation may not be as tight as indicated, as Ag Canada is using a yield of 865 pounds per acre in their production calculation. Using an average of the Sask Agriculture estimates, we end with 1,175 pounds per acre, which could add an additional 46,500 mt to total production given Ag Canada's harvested acre projection and potentially reduce concerns of tight supplies given current demand forecasts.

Dry pea, lentil and canaryseed tables were not only unchanged by AAFC, but yield estimates for the 2013/14 crop are very close to the ranges given by Saskatchewan Agriculture in their recent crop report. Sask Ag has estimated pea yields as of Aug. 12 to range from 27 to 40 bushels per acre across the six regions of the province, lentil yields to range from 1,300 to 1,500 pounds per acre across four growing regions and canary seed yields to range from 1,100 to 1,200 points per acre across four growing regions of the province.

Of course all production data will be updated in next Wednesday's Statistics Canada report, when we will have yet another look at the impact to the supply/demand balance given updated yield estimates.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@telventdtn.com

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