Canada Markets

Canada's weekly wheat exports for week 32, which included data as of March 10, showed the highest weekly movement in the past seven weeks, at 321,900 mt. This also comes at a time when USDA released a most favorable U.S. wheat export report on Thursday.

Wheat exports are, however, trailing the year-to-date volume required to meet the current Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) estimate of a 14.6 million metric tonne export program, although only by 661,000 mt or 7.4%. This is shown on the attached chart as the difference between the black line, or the cumulative volume required to meet the target, and the red line, which represents the actual cumulative volume shipped.

Despite this lag, wheat exports as of week 32, totaling 8.324 mmt, were 1.7% ahead of the same date last year and 7.2% ahead of the previous three-year average. The pace has been increasing over the past few weeks.

The 14.6 mmt target for exports (wheat excluding durum) is not a lofty target. Last year's exports totaled 13.916 mmt, while the average over the past five years is 13.821 mmt. Exports in both 2007 and 2009 were just slightly lower than 15 mmt, while movement in 1998 was 15.8 mmt.

It is very likely that the sales pace will pick up over upcoming months, especially if U.S. sales data announced Thursday is any indication. Total U.S. wheat sales announced for the March 1-7 period for 2012/13 delivery totaled 888,500 metric tonnes, which is 44% higher than the week prior and 52% higher than the previous four-week average. Many have suggested that North America will shine in the first half of this calendar year as supplier to global markets, while we are now perhaps seeing a movement in this direction.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@telventdtn.com

(AG)

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