Ag Weather Forum

One of the most comprehensive annual public-access corn yield projections is the University of Nebraska-Lincoln Hybrid-Maize crop model. The Hybrid-Maize crop model looks at end-of-season corn yield potential and real-time crop stage for 43 locations across the U.S. Corn Belt. Faculty and extension educators from 10 universities collaborate on the project and the analysis of corn yield potential.

The most recent update of the Hybrid-Maize yield model, dated Tuesday, Aug. 26, 2025, shows a big difference in non-irrigated (rainfed) yield prospects between sites located west of the Mississippi River and sites located east of the Mississippi. The western sites have 11 out of 24 locations (almost half) with a near-100% probability of above-average yield. However, none of the 17 research sites located east of the Mississippi River show that kind of yield potential. For eastern sites, the highest category by far is near average on yield.

A look at nighttime low temperatures and rainfall as a percentage of average shows that mid-to-late summer brought dryness and stress to crops in the Eastern Corn Belt. During July and August, the overnight low temperatures in the Eastern Corn Belt were 2 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit above normal, which limited the respiration periods for corn plants. At the same time, rainfall was mostly 50% below normal or lower. This warm and dry combination has definitely made an impact on yield prospects.

In contrast, the research sites located west of the Mississippi River had both milder temperatures and more rain. Overnight low temperatures at the western sites averaged near normal to mostly 2 degrees F above normal. Rainfall was also above normal at many western sites, creating favorable conditions for above-average yield prospects.

The project's late-summer yield outlook sums up the scene this way: "When compared with the 2024 season results, the current season's scenario is more optimistic in Kansas and parts of Nebraska. Conversely, the forecasts are more pessimistic in Illinois compared with last season, while all other states are expected to have fairly similar yields overall."

It will be interesting to see how yields actually develop. But the message in this yield model's projection is that the Western Corn Belt is shouldering the load when it comes to above-average corn yield prospects this year.

The full Hybrid-Maize yield discussion is available here: https://cropwatch.unl.edu/…

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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