Ag Weather Forum

The weather forecast for the southern Midwest and Delta during these last few days of August has a strong suggestion of moderate to heavy rainfall. That moisture will be much anticipated and very timely; most of this region has had little to no rain during August. "Finishing weather for corn and soybeans has been poor in the region and could have led to reduced yields," noted DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick on Aug. 25.

The lack of rain, along with periods of very warm to hot weather, have combined to create flash drought conditions according to the authors of the U.S. Drought Monitor. Comments in the Aug. 19, 2025, Drought Monitor included this observation:

"Along the Tennessee and mid-Mississippi River valleys, flash drought conditions led to widespread intensification and expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1 -- particularly in southern Missouri, western Kentucky and Tennessee, northwestern Mississippi and Arkansas ... Arkansas is experiencing a flash drought with conditions deteriorating quickly with nearly the entire state now abnormally dry (D0) or worse and pockets of severe drought (D2) developing in the northeast and central counties, along with the expansion of moderate drought (D1)."

Flash drought is defined as "A type of drought characterized by its rapid onset, intensification, and severity over a relatively short timescale, usually within a few days or weeks," according to Wikipedia. That certainly describes what we have seen in the southern Midwest and Delta. The Drought Monitor at the end of July showed this entire region as drought-free. Now, just three weeks later, dryness and drought cover the region with either Abnormal Dryness (D0) or Moderate Drought (D1) in effect. Weather reporting stations, which typically measure in excess of 2 inches of precipitation during August, have noted generally less than half that amount. In fact, from Aug. 1-25, Little Rock, Arkansas, logged only .01 inch of precipitation; the normal amount is 2.54 inches.

The dryness may be forcing grain to maturity as well. In the USDA NASS Crop Progress report Aug. 25, Missouri's corn maturity at 15% was five times the 3% reported a week ago. Kentucky's corn maturity jumped from 4% to 25%. Tennessee's corn maturity advanced from 11% a week ago to 36% this week. The Missouri corn maturity rate is almost double the 8% average at this point in the year and the Tennessee corn maturity is 17 percentage points higher than the five-year average. And in Arkansas, soybeans dropping leaves are reported this week at 23% versus the five-year average 17%. In Mississippi, soybeans dropping leaves are noted at 39% this week compared with the five-year average of 25%.

Much of this region has moderate to heavy rain forecast to close out this month. But timing is everything, and the rain arriving after the flash drought combination -- not before -- means that some shaving of yield for this year's southern Midwest and Delta row crops has indeed happened.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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