Ag Weather Forum

Extreme flooding continues across the Ohio and Lower Mississippi Valleys as massive amounts of water work through the system. This area needs some drier weather to facilitate that drainage.

In contrast, drought continues to have a grip on much of the Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest. Some of these areas received needed rain last week, but other areas missed out, such as in western Kansas and the northwestern Plains. These areas could use more rainfall. An active weather pattern would help those in drought, but it could also slow down the draining process in flooded areas.

During the next week, we indeed expect to see a more active weather pattern. Several systems should move through. However, models don't predict an overall abundance of precipitation out of these systems. Some streaks of heavier precipitation are certainly possible, but amounts should overall be below normal for this time of year.

Currently on April 9, a small system is bringing scattered showers through the Midwest. Some pockets of rain will fall through April 11, but amounts are generally expected to be less than a half inch. Rain falling over those soggy areas in the Ohio Valley will slow down some recovery, but should not cause additional flooding.

A second storm system will move through the Pacific Northwest on April 10, and then across the Canadian border during the weekend. The low-pressure center will move through Ontario and then northeast through northern Quebec early next week. Much of the precipitation is forecast to occur near the low center, favoring areas just north of the border, though parts of the Northern Plains could benefit as well. The front to that system should sweep through the country early next week, but with limited shower potential.

A third storm system will move like a clipper through the country. Starting in Alberta on April 15, it should dive southeast through the Midwest through the end of the week. This system is still being worked out by models, but none of them have widespread heavy precipitation. Instead, they disagree on how widespread lighter showers and possible thunderstorms may be.

What all three of these systems have in common is that they are coming from the Gulf of Alaska, an area that does not bring much moisture. A lot of that gets wrung out in the northern Rockies and dries up as it pushes eastward. These systems are not around long enough to draw up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America), and thus are somewhat moisture starved.

For those dealing with flooding, this forecast is overall favorable to see floodwaters recede. But for those in drought, the lack of significant rainfall across most of the Plains and Upper Midwest will be disappointing.

Models are a little more interested in a system for next weekend, however. Of course, that is a long way out and models will change, but they do point to some potential for a storm or two running through the country a bit deeper in the West. That will cause more of a draw from the Gulf of Mexico and better access to moisture to produce more widespread precipitation for the Plains and Midwest.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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