Ag Weather Forum

Early spring continues to feature drought across much of the Western Corn Belt. USDA's Agriculture in Drought report as of March 18 shows 53% of U.S. corn areas in some phase of drought. That's the highest percentage of corn areas in drought in the last five years, surpassing 18% in 2021, 31% in 2022, 28% in 2023 and 24% in 2024.

"The combination of a dry autumn and nearly snowless winter in many Midwestern areas has raised concerns about a lack of soil moisture as we head into the growing season," said USDA Meteorologist Brad Rippey in an email comment.

That drought concern has a strong prospect to continue in the Western Corn Belt during spring 2025. The latest seasonal drought outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, extending through June 30, calls for most of the Western Corn Belt to have drought either develop or intensify. Corn production in the areas affected amounted to an estimated 6.6 billion bushels (bb) in 2024 -- 44% of the total 14.9 bb U.S. corn crop.

Rippey pointed out that drought conditions now in effect are low-level and could ease with timely spring precipitation. "Nearly all the drought in the corn-production areas is lower end drought -- D1 and D2, or moderate and severe drought," Rippey said. "That is easier to overcome than higher-end drought (D3 and D4, or extreme and exceptional drought)."

But long-term precipitation deficits have crop prospects dependent on the arrival of just-in-time rainfall. "There are some very long, 5-year, deficits out there that won't be made up with typical rains," said NOAA Central Region Climate Services Director Doug Kluck.

The CPC seasonal drought outlook does bring some easing of drought to some large corn production areas. Central and eastern portions of Iowa have drought removal indicated in the forecast along with Illinois and Indiana. This "have" and "have not" precipitation scenario is consistent with a La Nina character in the atmosphere, which the Climate Prediction Center's seasonal forecast commentary highlights as an ongoing forecast element.

"Oceanic (Pacific Ocean) conditions consistent with La Nina have weakened during February 2025, and ENSO neutral is favored to develop within the next 1-2 months," the CPC comment noted. "Atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean, however, still remain reasonably consistent with a La Nina event and likely persist into and through the month of April."

That summary points to, again, how important any rainfall occurrence will be to the ability of Western Corn Belt crops to even get started in 2025.

"It's never good going into spring this way but more often than not we get sufficient rains for most crops," said Kluck. "If spring rains fail ... big issues no doubt."

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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