Ag Weather Forum

Small Window for Fieldwork in Central Brazil

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist
Rainfall amounts during the next week are forecast to be largely below normal for the main soybean and corn growing areas in central Brazil (circled). (DTN graphic)

Heavy rain has been in place across central Brazil for a long time. Though showers took two extra weeks to get going, starting in mid-October instead of late September, they have been very consistent since then, leading to big soybean production forecasts. However, the rain has hampered the soybean harvest and subsequent safrinha (second-season) corn planting. There will be a break this week, but it does not look like it will be for everyone and showers are forecast to increase in coverage next week.

The window for timely fieldwork was already short this season due to the late planting caused by the delay in the onset of wet season showers back in October. Producers were able to get planted in time, but the late start squeezed their operations into a small window instead of a somewhat spread out one. The early harvest was always going to be late. But the numbers now for Mato Grosso, the largest production state for corn and soybeans in Brazil, show a concerning picture.

According to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (IMEA), as of Jan. 30, just over 12% of the soybean harvest was completed, compared to an average of 25% completed. Corn plantings, at just over 6% planted, significantly trail the average of 22% for this time of year.

With heavy rain during the weekend and early this week, that will be difficult to make much progress on. And the concern for late harvest and planting of soybeans and corn, respectively, will only continue to grow. Producers try to get 80% of their corn planted by the end of the third week in February. That gives them less than three weeks to accomplish that goal. If heavy rains don't slow down quickly, they may have some major issues.

However, better conditions are coming. Showers are forecast to ease up from east to west across the primary corn and soybean production areas of central Brazil this week. The states of Minas Gerais and Goias, two other highly productive states, will get to only isolated showers by Feb. 5. The showers will not completely dry up, but producers in these states are used to working around showers; they should be able to follow through with some good progress. The states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Parana will see showers easing up as well, but not to the degree as those farther northeast. In fact, some areas in western Mato Grosso are still forecast to see above-normal rainfall.

The window may not be all that large, either. The European model is insistent that continued wet-season showers increase in coverage next week, starting Feb. 10 or Feb. 11. The American GFS model keeps total showers lower, especially for the state of Minas Gerais, but does return more widespread showers to the region.

Again, producers in this area are used to working around some form of showers. The heavy rain usually keeps them on the sidelines. But sporadic showers are easier to work around. That could be the case going forward the rest of the month. But the potential for increased rainfall and the degree to which the early harvest has been delayed could bring more of that safrinha corn crop into the delayed designation, putting it more at risk for pollination during the dry season that should show up in late April or early May.

To find more international weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, visit https://www.dtnpf.com/….

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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