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UPDATE: Big Storm Potential Next Week, But Not Guaranteed

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist
The upper-air setup for next week is favorable for producing a large storm tracking through the middle of the country, though it is not guaranteed to occur. (TropicalTidbits.com graphic)

Editor's Note: Since this story was originally posted on Oct. 22, models have come into some better agreement that a storm system will occur next week, between Oct. 29-31.

However, they still differ in how much precipitation that is produced with the storm, and its overall development. Models are still not producing one of the large storm systems talked about below, but they are producing heavy rain in a stripe from Texas to the Great Lakes that changes with intensity, location, and scope with every model run.

Models have also come to agreement that the western trough will reload late next week with potential for another storm system late next week or weekend, the first few days of November. Given the uncertainty that still exists with the system for next week, the uncertainty is even greater for the early November storm, but could add more precipitation to areas that may miss out next week.

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Dry, dry, dry. Outside of some hurricanes over the last month, getting rain to fall has been a difficult task that has usually resulted in small areas receiving good rainfall only to be completely dry for weeks afterward. We are more than halfway through the fall season but have yet to have one of those really big fall systems -- one that develops in the southwestern Plains and arcs northward through the Plains and Midwest, bringing a large shield of moderate to heavy precipitation that spreads through a lot of territory. We are going to have a good setup next week that gives some hope for a big storm to those who want to see the rainfall.

Almost all areas of the country need to see it. Like I mentioned last week, almost all areas of the country have below-normal soil moisture right now. (https://www.dtnpf.com/…) Those in the Southeast that had Helene move through almost a month ago, and Florida that had heavy rain from Milton are recovering from the flooding, but even some of these areas have gotten dry lately, too. Streaks of moderate to heavy rain in the southwestern and Central Plains and around the Great Lakes over the last couple of weeks haven't done much to improve the situation. What we need is a big storm, but what we haven't seen is the right setup for one to develop.

The best way to get a large fall storm is to have an upper-level trough of low pressure dig into the West while an upper-level ridge of high pressure sits on the East Coast. The trough provides the energy to create the storm while the ridge and its clockwise motion bring moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico to feed the rainfall.

This happens relatively frequently during the "transition" seasons of spring and fall, but so far this fall, it has been lacking. Next week is going to be different, though.

We will finally see a trough move down from the Gulf of Alaska into the West on Sunday and Monday. Meanwhile, we have had a ridge floating around much of the U.S. all season long. The trough will push the ridge to the east and voila, our setup will look like a good one for producing a storm system in the middle of the country sometime between Monday and Wednesday.

However, the setup isn't perfect. The trough won't be just one big ball of energy, it will be a little more spread out with a couple of pieces of energy. Sometimes that can lead to multiple waves of low-pressure systems riding between the trough and ridge, and therefore multiple waves of rain over the same areas. However, this one looks like the pieces of energy will be moving into different locations in the West, competing with each other for dominance.

One will most certainly dig down through the Southwest, round the bottom of the ridge, and follow the typical setup for the good storm system moving through the middle of the country. However, there may be a little piece of energy that goes out ahead of it through Canada this weekend into early next week. That splitting of the energy could lead to a quieter middle of the U.S. if the northern piece is more dominant.

Models are having a tough time grappling with which piece to focus on, with the American GEFS favoring the northern storm and the European model favoring the southern one, at least for now. They are going to have to resolve those differences, but the potential is certainly there for a good amount of rain from the Southern Plains up through the Midwest during the last few days of October. Fall storms usually bring big drops in temperatures, strong winds, and potential for severe weather as well, other things to watch for.

Even if this storm system busts next week, it won't be the only opportunity for a big system to move through. Going into the first couple of weeks of November, there is still potential for the western trough to reload and produce additional storm systems.

To find more weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/…

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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