Ag Weather Forum

Conditions for harvest in the U.S. have been really good during the last several weeks. Producers can get out into the fields with few weather issues holding them back. It has been a good run in that regard, but not for getting moisture back into the soil prior to winter, or for those that have winter grains that are running into establishment problems.

Dry has been the word of choice for a while and breaks in the dry stretch have been few and far between. Some of them have been significant though. Hurricane Helene brought heavy rain to the Southeast and southeastern Corn Belt in late September and some thunderstorms have moved through some pockets of the country since. But most areas of the country have below-normal soil moisture and that doesn't really describe just how dry it is in some areas.

Parts of the Plains have gone more than 30 days without a drop and very few areas have seen more than an inch during that period. We have seen some showers due to a strong cold front moving through the Great Lakes this past weekend, some lake-effect rain showers continue there Tuesday, and a front will be moving into the Plains on Thursday and Friday.

That front could linger over the southwestern Plains into Oct. 21 and bring some needed rain to some of the areas there. Model forecasts are calling for scattered showers that could produce 1 to 2 inches of rain in some areas, but the long-term prospects of good rainfall that would be a widespread benefit to soils across the country do not appear to be in the cards. Instead, more dry conditions continue to be the norm.

Signals for big fall storm systems, the kind that would bring a large shield of moderate to heavy rain, are hard to see. There may be one at the end of the month, and early November could contain another one or two as well. They will be needed. But that is too far out to have any confidence that the weather pattern will start to become more conducive for building soil moisture.

In the interim, drought will expand and soil moisture will get worse. Water levels on the Mississippi River have already lowered down to where they were pre-Hurricane Helene and with little precipitation forecast in the basin during the next few weeks, that should keep restrictions on barge traffic going for a long while. You can read more about the impact here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

In the Plains, drought has led to wildfires and issues with forage production and winter wheat establishment and that continues to be a concern for livestock producers. The lack of soil moisture throughout much of the country is already causing concerns for what the situation will be like for spring 2025 when the new crop will be planted. It may be premature to talk about the impact on that season, but widespread dryness heading into the winter, a season that usually carries little precipitation, should be a concern.

To find more weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/…

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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