Ag Weather Forum

Drought dominates the scene as the U.S. High Plains region goes into the last half of the fall season. The 6-state region encompasses the states of North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado and Wyoming. The U.S. Drought Monitor assessed the region back in early June as having 11.5% in the drought classes of D1-D4. D1 is Moderate Drought; D2 is Severe Drought; D3 is Extreme Drought; D4 is Exceptional Drought.

In early June, the hardest-hit drought area was in southern and southwestern Kansas. Now, in October, the drought area has ballooned by more than 500%. The Drought Monitor for Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, places almost 60% -- 59.81% -- of this 6-state region in D1-D4 drought. The region's percentage in D2 to D4 drought -- severe, extreme or exceptional drought -- is more than 10 times the number just three months ago at 23.28% compared with just 2.62% in the June 4 Drought Monitor.

Drought Monitor comments for the week of Oct. 8 emphasized how the combination of a lack of precipitation and extremely warm conditions have produced this sharp increase in drought:

"Since early June, precipitation has totaled less than half of normal through most of east-central and northeastern Wyoming, and shorter-term deficits of varying intensities envelop most of the High Plains Region. In addition, dryness was exacerbated by high temperatures averaging at least 5 deg. F above normal last week region-wide, and more than 10 deg. F above normal in most of Colorado and Wyoming, plus a few other scattered patches."

The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), a division of NOAA, added more harsh statistics on both warmth and dryness in a bulletin issued Friday, Oct. 10:

"Near-record or record-breaking temperatures and precipitation deficits defined September in North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, and Nebraska," the bulletin said. "Near-term forecasts predict continued much-above-normal temperatures and absent precipitation. The forecasted conditions could lead to continued very high evaporative demand across the region, worsening drought conditions." The NOAA/NIDIS bulletin also predicts an increased fire risk across much of the entire central U.S. during the rest of the month.

For DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart, who is based in northern Wyoming, the building drought and fire conditions are literally in her backyard.

"We are extremely dry here ... we don't have to cull any cows, but it's been a long time since we've gotten some moisture," she noted in an email. Stewart also has relatives who are battling the Elk Fire in Sheridan County, Wyoming. "They're going on two weeks now of battling the fire ... Ranchers are taking turns watching and battling the fire at night so that it doesn't get away from anyone and potentially hit some homes," Stewart wrote.

Forecasts for the last half of October indicate some prospects for near to above normal precipitation; however, normal precipitation in late October is less than earlier in the fall season, so even above-normal amounts of precipitation are likely to maintain a rainfall deficit across the High Plains region.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor is available here: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/…

The full NOAA/NIDIS bulletin is available here: https://www.drought.gov/…

Bryce Anderson can be reached at Bryce.Anderson@dtn.com

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