Ag Weather Forum

The tropics have been quiet lately, with no named systems in the Atlantic since Hurricane Ernesto, which became extratropical on Aug. 20. That's almost three weeks of no tropical activity during peak hurricane season, one that was forecast to be quite active. We may be on the verge of a burst of tropical activity this week, though only one system is forecast to hit the U.S.

A small tropical wave that moved into the southern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend is meeting a stalled front and has been developing a low-pressure center over the last day or so. It is forecast to deepen quickly over the warm Gulf waters over the next 48 to 60 hours. The storm will likely be given the name Francine if it forms before a couple of other features in the central Atlantic. It may even reach hurricane status prior to landfall as it drifts northward toward the coast of Louisiana. It is forecast to cross the coast late Wednesday afternoon or early evening on Sept. 11. Interests near the coast should pay particular attention to the strength and track of the storm.

But the forecast continues to pull the storm northward up the Mississippi River Valley over the following couple of days. Though it would no longer be tropical, it may reach as far north as the Ohio River before it becomes a remnant low. Forecasts from there are more uncertain. A building ridge to the north should block it from moving across the Ohio River. But the steering winds are very weak at that time. It may not be a tropical low, but it could continue to produce heavy showers and thunderstorms across the southeastern quadrant of the U.S. into next week.

The coast of Louisiana and up the Mississippi Valley is likely to receive hefty rainfall amounts -- 6 to 10 inches are likely near the coast and a touch inland, while amounts taper down to 3 to 5 inches farther up the Mississippi Valley through Sept. 17. The rest of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley are more likely to be in the 1- to 3-inch range, though there may be spottier heavy amounts if the storm indeed sticks around into next week. The heavy rain would be welcome for a lot of places in this area due to rapidly increasing drought over the last several weeks. The Mississippi River has been running low as well, and the incoming rainfall could help boost water levels. At the same time the rain could lead to flooding damage, especially to agriculture where a lot of the crops in the region are maturing and awaiting harvest. There are still some uncertainties with this system as it has yet to fully form and be labelled a tropical system by the National Hurricane Center.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com