Ag Weather Forum

Mandatory evacuations are in place for some parishes in southern Louisiana in anticipation of Hurricane Francine making landfall early Wednesday evening. The National Weather Service has Hurricane and Tropical Storm warnings extending across southern Louisiana into far southern Mississippi. Over the past 24 hours, there has been a slight eastward shift in the track of Francine, and it has been upgraded from a tropical storm to a hurricane. After Francine makes landfall, it is forecast to track north and parallel the Mississippi River before stalling out in the Tennessee Valley late this week.

DTN is forecasting Francine will make landfall between New Iberia and Houma, Louisiana, early Wednesday evening with maximum sustained winds around 100 mph, or a Category 2 hurricane. The National Hurricane Center states a hurricane of this strength will cause extensive damage. Homes in the path of this storm around the time of landfall could sustain major roof and siding damage. Widespread power outages are likely, and many shallow-rooted trees will either be uprooted or snapped off.

In addition to the wind damage, heavy rainfall will likely lead to flooding for some areas of the Southern Delta. DTN's current rainfall forecast has 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher amounts approaching 8 to 10 inches across southern Louisiana. As the storm dissipates into a tropical depression, or has winds of 38 mph or less, across eastern Arkansas or western Mississippi, rainfall could approach 3 to 4 inches in these areas with isolated higher amounts closer to five inches.

The Weather Prediction Center currently has a moderate risk for excessive rainfall across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi on Wednesday. A moderate risk for excessive rainfall equates to at least a 40% chance of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a point.

There are both upsides and downsides to the heavy rainfall that is forecast for the Southern Delta this week. River levels along the Mississippi are very low and additional rainfall would help boost those. The Memphis, Tennessee, Mississippi River gage height was near -7.5 feet Tuesday. However, the National Water Prediction Service is forecasting the Mississippi River at Memphis will not experience any rebound in the height. This may be a culprit of just how dry it is in this area. The U.S. Drought Monitor shows pockets of moderate to severe drought along the Mississippi in western Tennessee and eastern Arkansas. In the latest Crop Progress Report released by USDA on Monday, 41% of subsoil moisture was rated as short in Arkansas and Tennessee. More than just 3 to 4 inches of rain is likely needed to help boost river levels substantially, but at least the upcoming rainfall is a start.

Cotton harvest is also right around the corner for parts of the Southern Delta as bolls continue to open. Arkansas has 83% of cotton bolls opening as of Sept. 8 while Louisiana and Mississippi are at 72% and 69%, respectively. As the bolls finish opening and the cotton crop approaches maturity, the heavy rainfall and gusty winds anticipated with Francine could lead to damage.

Cotton isn't the only crop that is heading toward maturity in the Southern Delta. Soybeans are dropping leaves at a steady pace as well. From Sept. 1-8, the percentage of soybeans dropping leaves across Mississippi increased by 13% according to the latest U.S. Crop Progress Report. Arkansas saw a 10% increase while Louisiana was near 8%. For producers who are preparing to combine their mature beans, the heavy rainfall could certainly cause some delays to the start of harvest.

As Hurricane Francine edges closer to Louisiana, those in the path should take precautions. Luckily, the storm will weaken significantly as it interacts with land late Wednesday into Thursday; although, the risk for heavy rainfall will still linger into next week. Earlier this week, John Baranick highlighted that remnants of Francine could linger across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. You can read more about that here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…. His forecast remains on track as a strong upper-air ridge will anchor itself in eastern Canada and extend into the Northeast United States. The ridge will force remnants of Francine to be trapped across the Southeast U.S., lending to wetter than normal conditions for the area into early next week.

To find more weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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