Ag Weather Forum

Though temperatures have been higher and crops have matured faster since July, harvest has only started in the Canadian Prairies. Scattered showers and thunderstorms that have been pulsing through the region have been leading to some damage either by heavy amounts, or instances of strong winds and hail. Where the rains haven't fallen recently, yields have been reduced, leading to an overall poor end to the 2024 crop year.

The showers haven't hit everywhere, and portions of the Peace region and southern Alberta, western Saskatchewan, and eastern Manitoba have been much drier. Producers there are fine with the dryness as it allows them to get their combines out and get rolling. Harvest progress increased to 3% in Manitoba and 15% in Saskatchewan this week. Alberta was 3% combined as of last week's report. This week's report has not yet been released as of this writing.

Provincial reports are also indicating the occurrence of storm damage, which has been spotty with the showers, but comes at a very poor time. As reported by the CBC here, https://www.cbc.ca/…, storms the night of Aug. 21 produced some significant winds over 100 kilometers per hour (about 60 miles per hour) and golf ball-sized hail in south-central and southeast Saskatchewan. Insurance claims are likely to occur from the storm damage, putting to bed an up-and-down year that has ended mostly down.

And we're not done yet. Several pieces of energy coming from a trough in the Pacific Northwest will come up from Montana again through the weekend, bringing more risks of heavy downpours and severe weather that include strong wind gusts and large hail. Again, not all areas will be hit, and the best chances are going to be in Alberta and northern Saskatchewan through the weekend. Some other isolated storms may occur early next week as well. But another trough will send an organized system through the region Aug. 27-29. This will have a more potent cold front attached to it that will bring temperatures down but probably produce some organized rainfall across the region.

Models like northern Alberta and Saskatchewan for the best chances for organized storms, though they disagree on the true potential in the region. In addition, this storm could bring strong background winds.

It is difficult to pin down the details this far in advance, but gusts up to 60 km/h (about 40 mph) could be widespread with some gusts coming down the mountains in Alberta being higher.

Producers need to stay tuned to the forecast as it might push their plans forward if the threat for strong thunderstorms and wind gusts remain into next week.

To find more international weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/…

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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