Ag Weather Forum

As the U.S. corn crop progresses from pollination into the various filling stages, yield forecasts are starting to get posted. One of those forecasts, the Hybrid Maize Yield Model run by the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, suggests most yield numbers will be in the average to above average range.

The UNL forecast is based on corn growing weather and conditions through Tuesday July 23, 2024. The UNL Hybrid Maize Yield Model forecast is based on a collaboration of crop scientist input from UNL, the University of Minnesota, Iowa State University, the University of Missouri, Kansas State University, Michigan State University, Ohio State University, and Purdue University. A summary of the July 23 forecast was posted on the UNL CropWatch website.

A total of 43 sites are monitored in the yield forecast projection. The yield projection article notes that corn at the monitoring sites is generally in the reproductive phases.

Corn grown under irrigation is generally projected to produce yields that are near average. A big question, of course, comes up regarding the potential for this week's heat wave to drag yields down. But, so far, "... there is a relatively high probability of near-average yields for most sites..." the CropWatch article noted. Irrigation sites monitored by the Hybrid Maize Yield Model are located in Nebraska and Kansas.

Rainfed corn production shows more variability in yield potential. The yield projection as of July 23 is for near-average yields in the northern, central and Eastern Corn Belt. Beneficial rainfall and growing conditions during the early to midseason time frame are leading to projections for above-average yields in eastern and southern Nebraska, southwestern Iowa, eastern Kansas, and Missouri. Yield prospects are not as favorable for rainfed corn in southern Kansas and western Nebraska. At those sites, yields are projected to be below average.

Yield projections in the Hybrid Maize Yield Model forecast are based on agronomic conditions only. The impact of hail, flooding, disease, nitrate leaching, or problems with emergence are not taken into consideration. The report notes: "In fields negatively affected by these constraints, actual yields will be lower than estimates provided here."

The yield forecast was posted before the onset of this week's strong central U.S. heat wave. The CropWatch yield forecast post acknowledges that uncertainty. "Temperature and rainfall through the end of July and early August will be crucial in determining whether these projections persist," the yield forecast article noted. Yield projections will be updated in early August.

The full Corn Yield Forecast article is available here: 2024 Corn Yield Forecasts as of July 23 | CropWatch | University of Nebraska--Lincoln (unl.edu)

Bryce Anderson can be reached at Bryce.Anderson@dtn.com

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