Ag Weather Forum

Switch to Summer Heat Continues for Canadian Prairies

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist
Another week of heat is being forecast for the Canadian Prairies, especially in Alberta, coming at a bad time for crop development. (DTN graphic)

This season was shaping up to be quite different from the last few years. Widespread precipitation after a lack of meaningful winter snowpack had been a rather good thing for growers in the Canadian Prairies, but it also meant some flooding. And cool temperatures that coincided with it brought delays to planting and slower development.

But the heat switch was flipped in July and during the last week temperature readings over 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit) have been much more consistent. Readings over 35 C (95 F) have been reached on occasion as well.

As DTN Meteorologist Teresa Wells pointed out last week, https://www.dtnpf.com/…, the heat has been caused by an upper-level ridge that extends from the western U.S. up through Nunavut. The persistent feature has meant very hot weather and much lower rainfall, though some showers and thunderstorms have moved through at times as disturbances challenge the ridge.

Those disturbances have not been able to produce much in terms of widespread precipitation though, and drought concerns are increasing again. The ridge will need to move out of the way to allow for a front or significant system to bring widespread precipitation back into the region.

For now, sporadic and isolated showers will be the norm in the heat. Cool and wet or hot and dry, it has been difficult to find a combination that includes a mix of something else this season. And we do not foresee a mix of warm and wet in the near future at least.

The upper-level ridge will remain stout across the Prairies into next week, but it will receive a challenger by the middle of next week. A trough will move into British Columbia on July 23-24. That will start the shift of the ridge eastward. But the trough is forecast to be a slow mover, being largely cutoff from the jet stream racing off to its north through the remainder of the week. That will mean continued heat and mountain thunderstorms, as well as scattered showers for the Peace region and northern Alberta. But it will also mean continued dryness farther south and east until that trough can move deeper into the Prairies, likely not until the weekend.

Ahead of that trough it will continue to be hot and temperatures will continue to approach or exceed 30 C (86 F) region-wide with readings up to 35 C in southern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan on occasion as well. Heat and dryness will further be concerning for drought development at a critical time for crop development across the region. After the trough passes through, longer-range forecasts have the heat ridge returning for the end of July and early August.

Manitoba will be on the edge of that heat, however. While daytime highs should challenge the 30 C mark on occasion, the proximity to an upper-level low over Ontario and Quebec should keep temperatures from becoming too extreme. Fronts will work through this region as well and keep the shower chances a little more elevated than those off to the west and amounts approaching 25 millimeters (about 1 inch) will be possible through Monday, July 22.

To find more international weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, go to https://www.dtnpf.com/….

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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