Ag Weather Forum

A look at precipitation for the entire calendar year 2023 shows how El Nino in the Pacific Ocean exerted a big influence, particularly in the Great Plains. Much of the Plains region saw total 2023 precipitation that exceeded 110% of normal and may have reached 150% of normal in scattered locales of the Oklahoma Panhandle. (Precipitation data are provisional.)

The fall months of September, October and November were especially active in the Plains when it came to heavy precipitation. Rainfall totals three to four times the normal amounts were recorded in large portions of the region. Large-scale upper atmosphere winds steered into the U.S. by the settling in of El Nino provided the mechanism for this precipitation.

On the other side of the precipitation spectrum in the interior of the U.S., Midwest totals are largely from 10% to 50% below normal for 2023. Iowa and Missouri recorded the largest deficits relative to normal. The eastern half of Iowa and a diagonal swath from southwest to northeast through Missouri logged 50% to 70% below-normal precipitation totals for 2023 in total. While the fall months were generous on moisture in the Plains, the story was far different in the Midwest. Much of the Ohio Valley had precipitation 70% below normal during the fall season. That dry trend also encompassed the Delta and Southeast.

Forecasts for the first half of January offer some moisture for portions of the Midwest. Areas which had the largest total deficit for the entire year, however, are still expected to receive only light precipitation totals.

Fieldwork for the 2024 Midwest corn and soybean season will start in about 90 days, so the precipitation clock is ticking for soil moisture recharge. Meanwhile, benefits from the heavy late-summer and fall precipitation are evident in winter wheat ratings in the Plains. Late-November winter wheat had a total of 50% rated in good to excellent condition compared with just 34% in those same categories a year ago. There are also reports of more cattle grazing on wheat pasture in the Oklahoma Panhandle than during the last two winter seasons, in part because of more forage available.

A review of the 2023 total precipitation scene also shows the long-lasting influence of atmospheric river activity in the Far West. Total year precipitation reached more than three times the normal amounts in parts of California and Nevada, mostly in the Sierra Nevada mountains and on the southern California coast.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at Bryce.Anderson@dtn.com

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