Ag Weather Forum

Favorable Conditions for Brazil This Week

Mike Palmerino
By  Mike Palmerino , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
The major soybean-producing states of Mato Grosso, Parana and Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil continue to experience a favorable weather pattern with enough rain to support crop needs. (DTN graphic)

Mostly favorable weather conditions are expected to continue during the next seven days for soybeans in Brazil and corn and soybeans in Argentina.

The major soybean-producing states of Mato Grosso, Parana and Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil continue to experience a favorable weather pattern with enough rain to support crop needs and no persistent hot weather.

The crop is filling and maturing in Mato Grosso and Parana with some early harvest underway. The crop is developing and filling in Rio Grande do Sul. We expect to see a favorable weather pattern continuing during the next seven days.

The only area that continues to see unfavorable weather is northeast Brazil. Significant periods of hot and dry weather this growing season will result in reduced acreage and production. Rainfall is expected to pick up this week. However, it may be a case of too little, too late.

The weather is generally favorable in the major corn and soybean areas of central Argentina. Most areas have adequate soil moisture for current crop needs of corn pollinating and filling, and soybeans developing and early filling. Enough rain is expected to occur during the next seven days to support crops. There is no persistent heat, also favorable for crops.

UPCOMING MIDWEST STORM

As for the United States, another storm is forecast to affect the Midwest during the latter half of the week. Precipitation amounts will be light to moderate with locally heavier. A major storm could affect southern and eastern areas of the Midwest around the end of January.

All of this precipitation falling on saturated soils will lead to additional flooding. Unless there is a major change in the pattern, fieldwork and planting delays can be expected this spring. It will be drier in the Northern plains during the next seven to 10 days. However, soils are mostly saturated there as well, with any return to even normal precipitation leading to fieldwork and planting delays this spring.

Improving soil moisture in the Southern Plains winter wheat areas will favor the crop when it breaks dormancy. Near- to above-normal precipitation is expected during the next 10 days further improving soil moisture. There is no damaging cold weather indicated for at least the next 10 days.

Our latest calculation of the sea surface temperature departure in the eastern equatorial pacific for the first half of January 2020 is 0.0. This is down from a plus 0.9 observed during the month of December 2019. This big drop in temperatures bears close watching. If sea surface temperatures continue to fall in the next few months, it could lead to a drier weather pattern in the central U.S.

Michael Palmerino can be reached at michael.palmerino@dtn.com

(ES/)

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