Scattered moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms in central Brazil during the past seven days may have come too late to benefit most of the soybean crop.
Soybean development in central Brazil is running well ahead of normal with much of the crop now maturing and being harvested. This would suggest the rainfall during the past seven days was of limited benefit to soybeans, but very beneficial to the safrinha corn crop which is being planted well ahead of normal behind the soybean harvest.
Above normal temperatures and limited rainfall is expected during the next seven days. Hot weather and limited rainfall in southern Brazil during the past seven days stressed pod-filling soybeans.
Most of the crop in Parana is in late fill to harvest stage so the impact was limited. Rio Grande do Sul is mostly in the filling stage and most vulnerable at this time to crop losses. A hot/dry weather pattern is expected in southern Brazil through the weekend. Some significant showers and thunderstorms and cooler temperatures are possible early next week.
The weather pattern is generally favorable for developing corn and soybeans in Argentina with longer periods of dry weather and less frequent showers and thunderstorms.
Our latest calculation of the sea-surface temperature departure in the eastern equatorial Pacific for the month of January was 1.2 degrees Celsius above normal. This is down from the 1.5 degrees Celsius above normal observed during December, but still at El Nino levels.
Mike Palmerino can be reached at email@example.com
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