Another week of favorable growing weather was noted in the Midwest and Northern Plains. Despite above normal temperatures, soil moisture supplies remain mostly adequate due to the frequency of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Soil moisture supplies in most states are much improved over a year ago. We are looking at a less-active rainfall pattern during the next week, along with above normal temperatures. This will deplete soil moisture leading to some reduction in crop ratings next week. However, with ratings as high as they are right now, they have nowhere to go but down as we head into summer.
The latest extended range guidance indicates a fairly strong ridge will be developing over Western Canada and adjacent areas of the northwest U.S. during the six- to 10-day period. This could lead to a period of hot and dry weather in the Canadian Prairies. This will deplete soil moisture and increase crop stress. Whether it lasts long enough to affect spring wheat and canola production is uncertain. The history of ridges so far this growing season is that they do not tend to persist in any one area.
Internationally, one country that we are looking at closely right now is India. The early take on the monsoon is that it was behaving normally. However, we have been seeing consistent runs of the computer guidance indicating a very inactive monsoon in the major oilseed areas of west-central India during the next couple of weeks. June rainfall is not critical for oilseeds in India; however, if this region remains on the dry side during the month, significant July rains will be essential.
Michael Palmerino can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
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